I USE THIS BLOG TO SHARE MY PERSONAL, HYPE-FREE, DATA-DRIVEN TROPICAL STORM FORECASTS. |
Welcome to TropicalUpdates.org. My name is Matt, I am a physician, a farmer and an avid fisherman. I have studied weather my entire life. Starting with tracking hurricanes as a youth I have vivid memories of Hurricanes Donna and Betsy. I've kept daily rainfall and weather logs at my home for many years. For over 30 years I've been forecasting hurricanes and tropical storms and have attracted quite a following. My main mission is to provide an unbiased voice of reason and calm to counteract the inflammatory local media in my hometown, Miami. I used to provide this service only to family and friends by phone, but over time, the calls during hurricane season became onerous, so I started an e-mail listserv. THEN, that listserv started to have thousands of subscribers, and that became too much to handle. So in 2016, I started this website to share my "Tropical Updates," as they've been known for decades. Thank God for the internet!
The pre-blog archive page includes a couple of forecasts from 2004 and my Perspective from 2005 (preseason update) to give you a better feel for what I do. I only provide an independent opinion, but as I am not confined by the strict rules and regulations of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) I can give an educated guess as to where specifically I feel individual storms are headed. The NHC typically only mentions general areas and cones of probability. If you go to The Weather Underground there are many people who give their points of view (though most just reiterate the NHC forecasts). I try to make my forecasts from the raw data, before I look at what the NHC says, and I'm not afraid to give opinions that are contrary to theirs. They are often wrong anyway. I acknowledge that weather is inherently unpredictable. My forecasts are for informational purposes only. |
Testimonials |
Matt, I wanted to thank you for taking the time to give these forecasts. I can't tell you how much it means to me. I was pretty traumatized after Andrew and the news stations always made me so anxious when I used to watch them. Now I just read your reports and look at the radar (no sound!) and I have all the information I need without being scared to death. You are truly a calm in the storm and I really appreciate your taking the time to do this. Doc, I am so happy that you are making your incredible ability to accurately analyze and advise on storms during our hurricane season to more people through this blog. Thanks for your efforts as they are very valuable to us, personally. -- Chip (Miami, FL) Matt, I would like to say how much I have valued and used your reports to my family's great benefit, and to the benefit of many others. People get true, unbiased value from you. They can get it nowhere else. They frequently thank me for passing on your non-political, scientific, trustable, relevant facts about storms and hurricanes. The knowledge you have, the time you clearly spend, and the way you report the weather information is exceptional. -- Nicholas (Miami, FL) My business is fruit trees, both in Dade and Fort Myers area, when it comes to hurricanes and their movements I have found Matt to have good accuracy in calling the turns earlier than the NWS . He also reassures me with his advice . -- Pal (Homestead, FL) Thanks Matt for your ALWAYS accurate reports....everyone so appreciates them -- Judi (Miami, FL) Dr. Matt the Meteorologist is the best! Whether rating the months-ahead or just-hours-before, his forecasts are more accurate for almost precisely where you are than any other forecaster out there. Need news? Read his! -- Gary (Miami, FL) Matt, I have been receiving your reports for a few years and you have been more reliable and accurate than all other reports. -- Allen (Marathon, FL) Thank you so much for your updates. They are very helpful for those of us that don't have time to keep with the news. -- Nubia (Miami, FL) Dear Matt, Thanks so much for your hurricane updates. I can't begin to tell you how much your knowledge and expertise is appreciated over the years. |