Good morning.

TS Isaias formed this am and appears to be moving more eastward than expected yesterday. See current NHC forecast track below. A further eastward shift is possible. High pressure over Bermuda is forecast to move westward over the next couple of days which should turn Isaias NE and N, the timing will be key in determining its location of landfall along the northern Gulf coast early Sat/late Fri night. It is much better organized than had been expected and the NHC is currently forecasting a Cat 2 storm at landfall. Significant shear to its north hopefully will limit that.

Until next time,

                                                 Matt.
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Good morning.

Just a quick update. The NHC is forecasting an area of low pressure in the Western Gulf along a stalled frontal boundary to become a tropical depression in a couple of days. It is unlikely to have enough time to become more than a tropical storm. At present Louisiana appears to be the area of greatest risk.

Elsewhere the inter-tropical convergence zone appears to be moving southward and should soon end the Cape Verde season. Abundant shear remains over the Caribbean and Western Atlantic and the 2026 Tropical Season should remain quiet.

Until next time,

                                              Matt.
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Good morning.

The tropics remain quiet as previously discussed due to abundant Sharan dust and shear across the Caribbean due to a strong El Nino. El Ninos are characterized by hotter drier summers, cooler wetter winters and reduced tropical activity due to increased shear across the Caribbean and parts of the tropical Atlantic.

Yesterday Miami tied its all time high of 100 degrees first set in 1942. This was due to the Saharan dust and high pressure centered directly above it. The photograph below I took this morning on my way to work at 06:36. It shows spires of Saharan dust illuminated from underneath by the rising sun.

Until next time,

                                         Matt.
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Good morning.

I wasn't going to write about Bertha because it poses little threat to anyone, however yesterday afternoon I was watching one of the news stations on TV and the headline read,
" 116 million people may be affected by huge Tropical Storm Bertha."
What a bunch of hooey !

At 5 am this morning TS Bertha REMAINS an extremely poorly organized storm. Its center is currently headed towards New Orleans and in fact may pass over it however they will experience little associated weather. Due to 25 to 30 knots of NE shear Bertha is an uncoupled system. This means that most of its associated weather is displaced far from the center. The core of tropical systems are located about 1600 feet above the surface. For weak systems, which Bertha is, winds are brought to the surface by rain bands. If you look at the radar image bottom diagram you will see that there is little rain near the center of Bertha. Most is located well SW of the center in the Gulf, that is where the peak winds will be. I anticipate little rain or winds, ? 30s peak?,  for Louisiana. Bertha will likely continue to weaken today. With land interactions today and the displaced convection to the SW we may see the current center dissipate and a new center could form closer to the area of deep convection to the SW. That is the only scenario that could strengthen Bertha, a little. The only area at risk of any weather is Southern Texas where if the area of convection persists, may see localized heavy rainfall. That would not be near the current track.

Best wishes to all.

Until next time, 

                                                           Matt.
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Good morning.

All is quiet on the western front.

A combination of abundant Saharan dust and dry air across the Tropical Atlantic, high shear across the Caribbean due to a strong El Nino in the Eastern Pacific and below normal temperatures in the Eastern Atlantic, is inhibiting tropical development at this time. There is currently no end in sight in any of these. The only area with significantly warm water is the Caribbean and with our strong El Nino nothing may be able to get to it. I anticipate that we probably won't see much in the way of significant tropical development until late in the season, ? mid-late September /October.

Hoping for a quiet 2026 Tropical Season for all of us.

Until next time,

                                                  Matt.
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Good afternoon.

Unlike 2024, 2025 was a very good tropical season for the entire US with no landfalling hurricanes.

We are currently in a La Nina which is forecast to end by the end of this month. An El Nino is forecast to start in August and become strong by September/October. This combined with below average water temperatures in the far Eastern Atlantic should lead to a reduced Cape Verde season (which are the storms that pose the greatest risk to South Florida). If you look at the maps below you will notice several things.

First diagram shows abundant dry air over the Gulf and most of the Atlantic.

Second diagram, sea surface temps, shows the only warm water currently is in the Caribbean, with an El Nino storms may have a hard time getting to it due to associated shear.

​Third diagram, Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (Variation from expected for this time of year, not absolute), shows the main area of above expected temps in the Western Atlantic north of 20 degrees, as well as some in the Gulf.

Fourth, Heat Content, which is water temperatures to depth, 200 feet, which shows heat in the Caribbean however the Gulf has significantly cooled, at depth, due to our unusually cold winter this year, with lots of wind as well.

The bottom line. We should see below average tropical activity in 2026. In particular SE Florida should be at lower risk. The areas at greatest risk this year will be the Bahamas and the US East Coast. The Gulf may not see activity until late in the season, ? mid September through early November. 

Rainfall at my house in 2025, despite a 10 inch rain event on 3/30/25 was 57.32", below my 36 year running average of 66.45".

Wishing everyone a quiet 2025 Hurricane Season,

                                                                            Matt.

​2026 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names:
Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gonzalo
Hanna
Isaias
Josephine
Kyle
Leah
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred

Good morning.

Melissa has begun its NNE move. If you look at the water vapor loop below you can see a cold front sweeping across South Florida. This will prevent any further westward movement. Melissa will be picking up forward speed and will cross Western Jamaica today. This unfortunately will be a devastating event.

My thought and prayers are with everyone on the island and their friends and families elsewhere.

Until next time,           

                                        Matt.
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Good evening.

There have been a few interesting developments with Melissa since yesterday evening. The most significant is that it is currently located south and west of where the NHC had anticipated it to be at this time yesterday. The NHC's track still takes it right over Jamaica however there is a significant chance that if this more westerly motion persists that it may pass just to the west of the island. That would be very significant. H Melissa is currently a very intense yet compact storm with an eye of 10 nm wide. Hurricane force winds extend only 20-25 miles from the center and the eye wall extends up to 10 miles from the center, (Where the Cat 4 and 5 winds extend). If it should pass 20 miles off shore Jamaica could be spared from the worst of its winds. Its slow speed however will lead to extensive flooding, landslides and other serious damaging effects.

My current track takes it just to the west of Jamaica about 10 miles offshore. The NHC is currently not forecasting any further western movement, if it moves even a little more to the west it could make a big difference. Every mile to the west could be very significant with regards to wind damage. I would love to see it pass >20 west of the island. It should start to turn to the NNE tomorrow morning.

I have my fingers crossed and an hoping that this short term trend continues.

Until next time,

                                         Matt.
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Good evening.

Melissa became a hurricane today and appears to be undergoing rapid intensification. An eye should become visible soon. Melissa has been drifting for the past few days and hasn't moved very much. The NHC is currently forecasting it to become a Cat 4 hurricane and make landfall over Jamaica on Tuesday. This will be both a wind and rain event. Hispaniola may be spared the wind however widespread flooding and land slides will be a problem for Jamaica, Hispaniola and Eastern Cuba.

High pressure continues to protect Florida.

Until next time,

                                         Matt.

Good afternoon.

Tropical Storm Melissa formed earlier today and is expected to slow down tomorrow and then drift northward for 4-5 days. This could become a huge rain event for Hispaniola.

​After that current conditions would favor a move to the N and NE across Eastern Cuba and then through the Southeastern Bahamas.   The wild card however will be its slow motion. It may even stall. This could allow conditions to change. We're going to have to wait on this one as slow moving systems are more difficult to predict for just that reason. For example, if the high pressure currently over the Western Gulf and Mexico should strengthen and move eastward it could move it towards Central America.

SE Florida currently appears to be a low risk from this system. Hopefully a frontal system will continue to remain to our south.

It is over very warm water however abundant shear to its north should slow development.

Until next time, 
 
                                                        Matt.
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