Good morning.

​Another quick update. So far so good.

A weak disturbance off the coast of Africa is encountering abundant dry air and Saharan dust and is unlikely to become a hurricane and even if it does it would miss the US. 

A strong wave over Africa is about a week from coming off the coast and is over 2 weeks away, that will be the next one to watch. 

South Florida is currently under the influence of a weak pressure pattern with light W to SW winds aloft and an old frontal boundary in our vicinity. This will lead to afternoon showers and thunderstorms for the next several days.

There probably won't be much to write about for the next 1-2 weeks, possibly longer.

Until next time,

                                               Matt.

Good evening.

Just another quick update. Erin is moving out to sea after fortunately missing the US.
A wave behind it should miss the US as well.
 A third wave wave over the central Tropical Atlantic is heading towards the Caribbean however it will encounter significant dry air along the way as well as shear as it enters the Caribbean. It if does manage develop in spite of those obstacles high pressure over Cuba and South Florida would likely steer it towards Belize.

The waves which we will need to watch are currently over tropical Africa, see bottom infrared image of Africa. I'll be watching them as they make their way westward over the next couple of weeks.

Until next time,
​
                                            Matt.

Good afternoon.

Just a quick update. Erin has been proceeding as forecast. All the models are in strong agreement with it missing the US. Erin underwent rapid intensification yesterday and went from a 75 mph Cat 1 to a 165 mph Cat 5 in less than a day. It is currently down to a 125 mph Cat 3. Conditions have to be perfect for storms to maintain Cat 5 status. In fact the longest any storm has been at Cat 5 is around 24 hours.

Though intense Erin is a very compact storm with hurricane force winds extending only 20 miles from the center. Yesterday at peak intensity the eye was only 6 miles across.

Over the next several days due to centripetal force its wind field should expand.

Elsewhere a weak potential wave will probably follow a path similar to Erin's.

Note Erin on it's current track is actually a very good things as it should remove a lot of heat from a key part of the ocean, reducing the risk of stronger storms near its path. 

Until next time,

                                                   Matt.
​

Good morning.

Erin is forecast to become a hurricane today. It is still expected to turn NW, then N then NE and miss the US. Its main impact is that as it intensifies over the next 5 day it will likely significantly erode the Saharan dust and dry air that has been protecting the US since May. This will potentially lead to more storms developing in the Tropical Atlantic. It won't affect where they go. See Saharan Air Layer Analysis below. High pressure over Florida currently should protect the state.

Until next time,

                                                  Matt.

Good morning.

Just a quick update. Tropical storm Erin is currently headed generally toward Florida however it is not likely to hit the state nor the US. If you look at the SAL diagram 3 below you can see that is encountering a lot of dry air and has a lot more to pass through. Next notice the forecast surface map for 4 days out as it approaches the Bahamas. It will likely turn north before reaching the Bahamas and then NE towards a stalled frontal boundary extending from the Carolinas out into the Atlantic. 

I'll be watching it however it is not likely to threaten the US. After it passes through the dry air it should intensify and hopefully pull a lot of heat out of the ocean in the process.

Until next time,

                                                      Matt.
​

Good morning.

Just a quick update. As expected the 2025 tropical season has been off to a slow start due to large amounts of Sharan dust and shear however things are starting to change. There are currently 2 potential systems out there however neither poses a threat to the US.

The main things to note, see graphic below, are that the Saharan dust and dry air continue to cover a large part of the Tropical Atlantic however it's breadth is starting to thin.
Next notice on the surface map that high pressure that had been centered over the central Gulf and Florida most of the summer to date, has now shifted westward and the Bermuda High has shifted westward opening a window from the tropics into Florida. This is why we have been seeing more rainfall the past few days.

Next notice that wind shear has markedly decreased across the Caribbean and the Western Atlantic. Once the Saharan layer further erodes we are likely to see an uptick in storms. Hopefully the current dust will delay thing until the window moves away from Florida.

Next notice sea surface temperatures and heat content. The Caribbean the Gulf and the Bahamas currently have the warmest waters. The eastern Atlantic waters are relative cooler which will hopefully lead to fewer Cape Verde storms this year. 
The Caribbean and Gulf season usually starts mid-late September thru October. 

We currently look good but in a couple of weeks things may change. I'll be watching.

Until next time,

                                                   Matt.

​

Good morning.

Just a quick update. Currently very unfavorable conditions exist across the Atlantic Basin with abundant Saharan Dust, dry air and high shear.

It will probably be a while before we see any significant tropical development.

Until next time,

                                                    Matt.

​ 
Good morning.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was very active and extremely destructive with several landfalling hurricanes that became the third-costliest on record, behind only 2017 and 2005. It featured 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes; it was also the first since 2019 to feature multiple Category 5 hurricanes. 

2025 is forecast to be a mildly above average season. Last year's La Nina has ended and we currently have neutral El Nino conditions, which are forecast to continue through the fall, which are usually associated with average seasons, however ocean water temperatures are currently warmer than average across the western and central Atlantic & are currently slightly below average over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Warmer than average ocean water temperatures are also currently occurring over the eastern subtropical Atlantic and the northern Gulf of Mexico. The warmer than average water temperatures are forecast to lead to an above average season with regard to the number of storms.

The net result of this is that the areas at greatest risk this year are the northwestern Caribbean northward to the northern Gulf coast, the Carolinas, Southern New England and the far northeastern Caribbean, including the far northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Rainfall at my house in 2024, despite a wet June and October, was 48.00", well below my 35 year running average of 66.71".



Wishing everyone a great 2025.

Until next time,

                       
                                                        Matt.

Good morning.

Tropical Storm Sara has formed in the SW Caribbean and its main threat will be heavy rainfall over Central America. It will be a slow moving system and its impacts will be significant.

Once it moves into the Gulf of Mexico it will encounter hostile conditions with dry air and abundant shear and is likely to dissipate. Even if it manages to hold itself together, forecasts only predict a 20-40 mph system.

Hopefully this will be the last system of 2024.

Until next time,

                                          Matt.

Good morning.

H. Rafael remains in the central Gulf of Mexico. The NHC is forecasting ti to meander over the Central and Western Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. As it encounters increasing shear and dry air it is currently forecast to dissipate 5-6 days, possibly sooner. This would be a best case scenario as no one would get a storm. In addition, it will continue to remove significant heat from the Gulf reducing the risk of further storms this year.

The other area mentioned yesterday show no sign of development as it interacts with an upper level low currently over Hispaniola, see below. Lots of shear out there, notice how fast the air is moving, which is good.

Until next time,

                                              Matt.