Good evening.

Melissa became a hurricane today and appears to be undergoing rapid intensification. An eye should become visible soon. Melissa has been drifting for the past few days and hasn't moved very much. The NHC is currently forecasting it to become a Cat 4 hurricane and make landfall over Jamaica on Tuesday. This will be both a wind and rain event. Hispaniola may be spared the wind however widespread flooding and land slides will be a problem for Jamaica, Hispaniola and Eastern Cuba.

High pressure continues to protect Florida.

Until next time,

                                         Matt.

Good afternoon.

Tropical Storm Melissa formed earlier today and is expected to slow down tomorrow and then drift northward for 4-5 days. This could become a huge rain event for Hispaniola.

​After that current conditions would favor a move to the N and NE across Eastern Cuba and then through the Southeastern Bahamas.   The wild card however will be its slow motion. It may even stall. This could allow conditions to change. We're going to have to wait on this one as slow moving systems are more difficult to predict for just that reason. For example, if the high pressure currently over the Western Gulf and Mexico should strengthen and move eastward it could move it towards Central America.

SE Florida currently appears to be a low risk from this system. Hopefully a frontal system will continue to remain to our south.

It is over very warm water however abundant shear to its north should slow development.

Until next time, 
 
                                                        Matt.
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Just an announcement. The Rare Fruit Council International will be sponsoring an event on Saturday, November 8th in Redland. For those of you who attended last year it was a lot of fun. It will be an even bigger event this year with more vendors and food. The Groove Brother's will be playing again which is a great band. The proceeds will benefit the RFCI a not for profit educational club. 

The property is located on Krome Avenue immediately south of By Brothers, look for the Fruteria Los Mendez sign and the yellow Roasted Corn sign.

There are a limited number of tickets available and the event will likely sell out so if interested I would recommend buying tickets earlier rather than late.

I will be at the event and hope to see you there,

                                                 Matt.
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Good morning.

​Our first cold front of the season is pushing through SE Florida as we speak. This will continue to protect the state as well as the east coast of the US.

I'll be continuing to  watch closely however we're still looking good.

Until next time,

                                                Matt.

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Good evening.

The last area of disturbed weather that I talked about has become H Humberto which is moving out to sea. A second area is showing signs of slow development and may be come TS Imelda tomorrow. 

The weak frontal boundary that was over and just south of South Florida for the past 3 plus weeks has dissipated, however a new frontal system ,currently over north central Florida, is slowly moving SE and will likely replace it. This should help to protect Florida from potential Imelda however as it is still to our west it will allow the system to come closer, however it should still miss the state. The area at potential risk are the Coastal Carolinas, however I suspect that it will stall just off the coast and then move NE along the  advancing front, out to sea. 

Elsewhere a couple of weak waves are about to move off the coast of Africa which I'll be watching.

Until next time,
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                                        Matt.

Good morning.

The NHC is tracking a couple of systems out there however neither currently pose a threat to the US. The stalled frontal boundary currently just east of Florida and the SE US has pushed a little eastward.
This is the feature which has keep South Florida in a very rainy pattern for the past 3 weeks. This will continue to protect the US. Both Gabrielle and the potential system behind should follow a similar path out to sea.

As noted previously I do not anticipate anything of significant for the US until October.

The Saharan dust and dry air are still out there but are becoming more fragmented, however they continue to hamper tropical development.

Until next time,

                                              Matt.
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Good morning.

Another quick update. The weak wave which I discussed in my last 2 updates, not unexpectedly has succumbed to the Saharan dust and dry air surrounding it.

There are a couple of waves over Africa. One should come off the coast tomorrow at around 17 degrees north (too far north to likely affect Florida-likely move out to sea) and will encounter even more dry, air, ie likely be slow to develop or fade and another at around 5 degrees N is about 6 days from emerging off the coast however is too far south to develop.

We may not see anything of significance until October.

Until next time,

                                       Matt.

Good afternoon.

​The weak tropical wave which I wrote about last has been moving slowly westward since my last update. I am writing now because it is currently well south of where the NHC had forecast to be at this point in time. It should still miss Florida however its more southerly track could bring it closer to South Florida  and the Bahamas.

The key will be if it should enter the Caribbean or not. If it moves north of the Virgin Islands it should miss the US and the Bahamas.

If it should enter the Caribbean a track through the Bahamas would become more likely. It is currently encountering a lot of dry air and Saharan dust and development will be slow to occur. 

A stalled frontal boundary just South of Florida will hopefully keep it away from Florida however of note is that it is moving very slowly, currently 10mph, and over time conditions will change. The slower it goes the less certainty in any forecast. 

Hopefully in a few days we'll see a shift in its track to the NW as many of the models are forecasting.

I'll be watching it.

Until next time, 

                                                 Matt.

Good morning.

​Another quick update. So far so good.

A weak disturbance off the coast of Africa is encountering abundant dry air and Saharan dust and is unlikely to become a hurricane and even if it does it would miss the US. 

A strong wave over Africa is about a week from coming off the coast and is over 2 weeks away, that will be the next one to watch. 

South Florida is currently under the influence of a weak pressure pattern with light W to SW winds aloft and an old frontal boundary in our vicinity. This will lead to afternoon showers and thunderstorms for the next several days.

There probably won't be much to write about for the next 1-2 weeks, possibly longer.

Until next time,

                                               Matt.

Good evening.

Just another quick update. Erin is moving out to sea after fortunately missing the US.
A wave behind it should miss the US as well.
 A third wave wave over the central Tropical Atlantic is heading towards the Caribbean however it will encounter significant dry air along the way as well as shear as it enters the Caribbean. It if does manage develop in spite of those obstacles high pressure over Cuba and South Florida would likely steer it towards Belize.

The waves which we will need to watch are currently over tropical Africa, see bottom infrared image of Africa. I'll be watching them as they make their way westward over the next couple of weeks.

Until next time,
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                                            Matt.