Good evening.
Here we go. Milton has remained south of where the NHC had forecast it to be at most of the day today. This has allowed it to re-intensity back to Cat 5 status. Over the past 3 hour however it finally appear to have begun its NE move and if its current trajectory holds it should make landfall along the west central Florida coast in the vicinity of Oaks Club/ Osprey Florida. (27.21 degrees north). The NHC has moved the center of its track a little southward though theirs still remains a little north of mine, towards Sarasota.
Due to its intensity and small 10 mile wide eye it has been fending off the shear to its north. As it moves further north it should start to weaken, however it may not weaken enough. Only time will tell. The longer it maintains its compact structure, the less time it will have to weaken, however it will be encountering ever increasing shear as it moves northward. I really want to see how it does overnight.
The current forecast wind fields for when it makes landfall are as are as follows:
Hurricane force winds to extend 35 miles to the NE and SE of the center
Strong storm force winds (50-70 mph) to extend 80 NE and 60 miles SE of the center.
Weak storm force winds (40-50 mph) to extend 230 miles to the NE and 140 miles to the SE of the center.
On the NHC's track it would pass
35 miles south of Tampa. (50 miles N of my track)
60 miles south of Orlando
200 miles north of Miami
35 miles north of Ft Myers ( 20 miles N of my track)
140 miles north of Boca Raton
SE Florida should experience winds in the 20s with gusts in the 30s in squalls. 1-3" of rain.
Those closer to the center of the path could receive up to 4-8 inches of rain. Potentially more including the pre storm rain tomorrow.
Ft Myers to Sarasota will probably receive the most weather. My best wishes extend to everyone in its path. I'm still hoping for a white knight to come in late in the forecast period and weaken it, every bit will help.
I will continue to monitor it closely and update as needed.
Until next time,
Matt.
