Good afternoon.
Tropical Storm Melissa formed earlier today and is expected to slow down tomorrow and then drift northward for 4-5 days. This could become a huge rain event for Hispaniola.
After that current conditions would favor a move to the N and NE across Eastern Cuba and then through the Southeastern Bahamas. The wild card however will be its slow motion. It may even stall. This could allow conditions to change. We're going to have to wait on this one as slow moving systems are more difficult to predict for just that reason. For example, if the high pressure currently over the Western Gulf and Mexico should strengthen and move eastward it could move it towards Central America.
SE Florida currently appears to be a low risk from this system. Hopefully a frontal system will continue to remain to our south.
It is over very warm water however abundant shear to its north should slow development.
Until next time,
Matt.
Tropical Storm Melissa formed earlier today and is expected to slow down tomorrow and then drift northward for 4-5 days. This could become a huge rain event for Hispaniola.
After that current conditions would favor a move to the N and NE across Eastern Cuba and then through the Southeastern Bahamas. The wild card however will be its slow motion. It may even stall. This could allow conditions to change. We're going to have to wait on this one as slow moving systems are more difficult to predict for just that reason. For example, if the high pressure currently over the Western Gulf and Mexico should strengthen and move eastward it could move it towards Central America.
SE Florida currently appears to be a low risk from this system. Hopefully a frontal system will continue to remain to our south.
It is over very warm water however abundant shear to its north should slow development.
Until next time,
Matt.
