Good morning.
2014 was a very quiet year for us in South Florida as well as the entire Atlantic Basin. 2015 is likely to be too, however all it takes is one bad one.... Rainfall at my house in 2014 was 50.42 inches , well below my 25 year running average of 67.91 inches.
We have several factors in play this year. First is a developing El Nino. El Nino's are characterized by cooler, wetter winters in the Eastern US with below normal tropical activity due to associated increased shear across the Caribbean. This year in addition we have some of the coldest water seen in the past 50 years in the Eastern Atlantic which should dramatically reduce the Cape Verde season. If any Cape Verde storm do develop they should be late (September). We also have above average water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and off the SE US coast and the Bahamas. These areas are generally more favorable for development in the early season (June- and why Ana formed last week) and late ( mid September to early November; primarily October.)
The bottom line. We should see below normal tropical activity with few if any Cape Verde storms with potential storms forming in the Gulf of Mexico or off the SE US coast or the Bahamas primarily in June and September / October. The main risks for South Florida would be for storms developing in the Bahamas and moving west (like Katrina did) or near the Yucatan moving NE. (Like Wilma did.)
I'll keep my eyes out but am hoping for another below average season. A reduced Cape Verde season hopefully will be associated with fewer Major Hurricanes as well.
My Best All,
Matt
2014 was a very quiet year for us in South Florida as well as the entire Atlantic Basin. 2015 is likely to be too, however all it takes is one bad one.... Rainfall at my house in 2014 was 50.42 inches , well below my 25 year running average of 67.91 inches.
We have several factors in play this year. First is a developing El Nino. El Nino's are characterized by cooler, wetter winters in the Eastern US with below normal tropical activity due to associated increased shear across the Caribbean. This year in addition we have some of the coldest water seen in the past 50 years in the Eastern Atlantic which should dramatically reduce the Cape Verde season. If any Cape Verde storm do develop they should be late (September). We also have above average water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and off the SE US coast and the Bahamas. These areas are generally more favorable for development in the early season (June- and why Ana formed last week) and late ( mid September to early November; primarily October.)
The bottom line. We should see below normal tropical activity with few if any Cape Verde storms with potential storms forming in the Gulf of Mexico or off the SE US coast or the Bahamas primarily in June and September / October. The main risks for South Florida would be for storms developing in the Bahamas and moving west (like Katrina did) or near the Yucatan moving NE. (Like Wilma did.)
I'll keep my eyes out but am hoping for another below average season. A reduced Cape Verde season hopefully will be associated with fewer Major Hurricanes as well.
My Best All,
Matt