Good morning

At 5am TS Colin was located at 25.2 N and 87.4 W with 50 mph winds and was moving NNE at 14 mph. The upper level wind pattern has not changed and Colin should proceed as previously forecast. The NWS/NHC has been right on with this one and I anticipate landfall in the Big Bend area of North Florida early tomorrow morning. Significant shear should hamper significant intensification and the NHC is currently forecasting it to make landfall as a 60 mph Tropical Storm.
It is pretty much due west of Miami now and SE Florida should see minimal weather from this system. Probably some rain later today and tonight. Not much wind.

Until next time,

Matt.

Good afternoon.

Thunderstorm activity has increased in the NW Caribbean and an area of low pressure is forming just east of the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC is currently giving it an 80% chance of becoming a tropical depression once this area enters the Gulf of Mexico tomorrow evening. It is currently expected to become Tropical Storm Colin and make landfall in the Big Bend area of North Florida on Monday night.  The computer models are in good agreement on this at present.

Monday should be rainy and blustery but probably no severe weather in the greater Miami area. Note I suspect the timing may be delayed by 12-24 hours.

My best to all,  Matt.

Tropical Update 10 AM, Friday 6-3-16
 
 
Good morning.
 
I'm writing to inform you of a POSSIBLE weather event early next week. The NWS is currently forecasting :
 "An area of showers and thunderstorms has developed over the western
Caribbean Sea.  This system is moving west-northwestward toward the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and a low pressure area is expected to
form over the Yucatan or the adjacent waters by late this weekend.
This low could develop into a tropical cyclone as it subsequently
moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula
early next week.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and
flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
western Cuba and the Florida Peninsula during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent"


 IF it happens it is expected to occur Sunday or Monday . We currently have a SE surface flow with upper level winds out of the SW.
IF it should form where the NWS is projecting it, it (possibly Tropical Storm Colin) potentially could threaten central to north Florida next week based on current upper level winds.
At present South Florida appears to be at low risk for more than some heavy rain and thunderstorm. Shear is quite high across the Caribbean currently however it is relatively light over the Gulf of Mexico which is why the NWS is forcasting possible development once this area enters the Gulf.
 
If things do develop I will write further.
 
Of particular note in reviewing sea surface water temperatures along the western coast of South America it is very clear that our current El Nino is ending. Water temperatures have been falling steadily over the past few weeks and are currently at to slightly below normal along the coast though still above normal off shore. Upper level winds/ shear remain strong over the Caribbean however by the end of this month our El Nino will be over. The NHC is predicting a 75% chance of La Nina conditions by fall. In light of this I would expect an above average hurricane season as far as activity. Remember however it is more important where they go rather than the absolute number of storms. 

Matt.