Tropical Update 10 AM, Friday 6-3-16
Good morning.
I'm writing to inform you of a POSSIBLE weather event early next week. The NWS is currently forecasting :
"An area of showers and thunderstorms has developed over the western
Caribbean Sea. This system is moving west-northwestward toward the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and a low pressure area is expected to
form over the Yucatan or the adjacent waters by late this weekend.
This low could develop into a tropical cyclone as it subsequently
moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula
early next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and
flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
western Cuba and the Florida Peninsula during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent"
IF it happens it is expected to occur Sunday or Monday . We currently have a SE surface flow with upper level winds out of the SW.
IF it should form where the NWS is projecting it, it (possibly Tropical Storm Colin) potentially could threaten central to north Florida next week based on current upper level winds.
At present South Florida appears to be at low risk for more than some heavy rain and thunderstorm. Shear is quite high across the Caribbean currently however it is relatively light over the Gulf of Mexico which is why the NWS is forcasting possible development once this area enters the Gulf.
If things do develop I will write further.
Of particular note in reviewing sea surface water temperatures along the western coast of South America it is very clear that our current El Nino is ending. Water temperatures have been falling steadily over the past few weeks and are currently at to slightly below normal along the coast though still above normal off shore. Upper level winds/ shear remain strong over the Caribbean however by the end of this month our El Nino will be over. The NHC is predicting a 75% chance of La Nina conditions by fall. In light of this I would expect an above average hurricane season as far as activity. Remember however it is more important where they go rather than the absolute number of storms.
Matt.
Good morning.
I'm writing to inform you of a POSSIBLE weather event early next week. The NWS is currently forecasting :
"An area of showers and thunderstorms has developed over the western
Caribbean Sea. This system is moving west-northwestward toward the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and a low pressure area is expected to
form over the Yucatan or the adjacent waters by late this weekend.
This low could develop into a tropical cyclone as it subsequently
moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula
early next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and
flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
western Cuba and the Florida Peninsula during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent"
IF it happens it is expected to occur Sunday or Monday . We currently have a SE surface flow with upper level winds out of the SW.
IF it should form where the NWS is projecting it, it (possibly Tropical Storm Colin) potentially could threaten central to north Florida next week based on current upper level winds.
At present South Florida appears to be at low risk for more than some heavy rain and thunderstorm. Shear is quite high across the Caribbean currently however it is relatively light over the Gulf of Mexico which is why the NWS is forcasting possible development once this area enters the Gulf.
If things do develop I will write further.
Of particular note in reviewing sea surface water temperatures along the western coast of South America it is very clear that our current El Nino is ending. Water temperatures have been falling steadily over the past few weeks and are currently at to slightly below normal along the coast though still above normal off shore. Upper level winds/ shear remain strong over the Caribbean however by the end of this month our El Nino will be over. The NHC is predicting a 75% chance of La Nina conditions by fall. In light of this I would expect an above average hurricane season as far as activity. Remember however it is more important where they go rather than the absolute number of storms.
Matt.