Subject: Pre-Season Tropical Update 2017
Good morning.
June 1st marks the official start of the 2017 Hurricane Season.
2016 was an above average season in the Tropical Atlantic due to a weak La Nina with 15 named storm, with 7 Hurricanes and 3 Major Hurricanes. On average there are 12 named storms and 6 Hurricanes with 3 Major. Most of the storm last year formed late in the season, 10 from September on, 7 in September. Last year South Florida was threatened by 2 storms. Hermine which the NHC had initially targeted to hit SE Florida, went through the Florida Straits (as forecast) eventually making landfall as a minimal Cat 1 in the Big Bend area of Florida; and Matthew which fortunately passed about 30 miles to the east of NHC's forecast track. Miami saw minimal effects though Florida from West Palm Beach north was effected along with coastal Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.
Rainfall at my house totaled 65.76 inches a little below my 27 year running average of 68.13". Months of heaviest rainfall were May, July, August and October led by August with almost 13 inches.
I am expecting an average year in the tropics for 2017. We currently have a neutral El Nino cycle. Last years La Nina is over and it is possible that a weak El Nino may form later in the season. If that happens it could lessen late storm activity. We also have above average temperatures in the eastern Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico which potentially could lead to stronger storms if they do form in those areas. But remember you need 3 conditions to make a tropical system. Water temperatures 80 degrees or greater, spin and the absence of shear. The most important being the absence of shear. El Ninos are associated with an increase in shear across the Caribbean.
May the winds of shear blow and the Mid Atlantic Trough send all the storms out to sea!
Wishing everyone a great summer and a quiet Hurricane Season,
Matt.
Good morning.
June 1st marks the official start of the 2017 Hurricane Season.
2016 was an above average season in the Tropical Atlantic due to a weak La Nina with 15 named storm, with 7 Hurricanes and 3 Major Hurricanes. On average there are 12 named storms and 6 Hurricanes with 3 Major. Most of the storm last year formed late in the season, 10 from September on, 7 in September. Last year South Florida was threatened by 2 storms. Hermine which the NHC had initially targeted to hit SE Florida, went through the Florida Straits (as forecast) eventually making landfall as a minimal Cat 1 in the Big Bend area of Florida; and Matthew which fortunately passed about 30 miles to the east of NHC's forecast track. Miami saw minimal effects though Florida from West Palm Beach north was effected along with coastal Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.
Rainfall at my house totaled 65.76 inches a little below my 27 year running average of 68.13". Months of heaviest rainfall were May, July, August and October led by August with almost 13 inches.
I am expecting an average year in the tropics for 2017. We currently have a neutral El Nino cycle. Last years La Nina is over and it is possible that a weak El Nino may form later in the season. If that happens it could lessen late storm activity. We also have above average temperatures in the eastern Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico which potentially could lead to stronger storms if they do form in those areas. But remember you need 3 conditions to make a tropical system. Water temperatures 80 degrees or greater, spin and the absence of shear. The most important being the absence of shear. El Ninos are associated with an increase in shear across the Caribbean.
May the winds of shear blow and the Mid Atlantic Trough send all the storms out to sea!
Wishing everyone a great summer and a quiet Hurricane Season,
Matt.