Good morning.
2018 was a quiet year for South Florida however there were a few remarkable systems. Hurricane Florence which caused extensive flooding across North Carolina and Hurricane Michael which made landfall as a strong Cat 4 near Panama City, FL.
Rainfall at my house totaled 52.37" which was well below my 29 year running average of 67.88" and substantially below 2017s above average rainfall of 76.70".
I've been following atmospheric and sea surface conditions for several months now and it is looking more likely that El Nino conditions will persist throughout the 2019 Hurricane Season. We are currently in a weak El Nino which started around October. It is expected to remain weak or become moderate over the summer. In addition sea surface temperatures along and south of 20 degrees North Latitude are cooler than average with warmer than average sea surface temperatures occurring north of 20 North Latitude and especially north of 25 North Latitude. The Gulf of Mexico in particular remains warm.
The above should lead to an average to slightly below average season as far as the number of storms with the areas at greatest risk being the Carolinas, the Gulf of Mexico and the Bahamas. On average we see 12 named storms/ year with 6-7 hurricanes of which 2-3 become major hurricanes. The overall risk for South Florida should be a little below average. The average risk of hurricane conditions being experienced in South Florida is about 14% chance per year.
I'll be watching closely as usual and will write Updates as the need arises.
Hoping for a quiet season for all,
Matt.