Hello all,
2019 was a quiet year for South Florida and the US in general though we had a scare from Hurricane Dorian which devastated Great Abaco and Grand Bahama Island with sustained Cat 5 conditions, and clipped the Outer Banks with Cat 1 conditions.
The National Weather Service just came out with its April 20th ENSO forecast. It currently shows that we have neutral ENSO conditions and is giving a 60% chance that they will continue through the end of the 2020 Hurricane Season. They currently give around a 30% chance of La Nina conditions developing in the fall. If that would occur it could increase the likelihood for an above average season.
In looking at the tropics, we have above average water temperatures in the Caribbean and right along the coast of Central Africa with below average water temperatures across the Eastern and Central Atlantic (see first image below).
In looking at the current Saharan Air Layer Analysis (second image) we can see extensive dry air and Saharan dust across the entire Tropical Atlantic extending into the Caribbean Sea.
In light of all the above I am currently forecasting an above average season with a slow start and potentially busy finish to the season with areas of greatest risk being the Caribbean, northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico as well as the Carolinas. The warm water in the far eastern Atlantic could lead to an above average Cape Verde season as well.
On average we see 12 named storms/ year with 6-7 hurricanes of which 2-3 become major hurricanes. The overall risk for South Florida should be around average. The average risk of hurricane conditions being experienced in South Florida is about 14% chance per year.
Last year rainfall at my house totaled 58.08 ", below my 30 year running average of 67.55".
I'll be watching closely as usual and will write Updates as the need arises.
Hoping for a quiet season for all,
Matt.
2019 was a quiet year for South Florida and the US in general though we had a scare from Hurricane Dorian which devastated Great Abaco and Grand Bahama Island with sustained Cat 5 conditions, and clipped the Outer Banks with Cat 1 conditions.
The National Weather Service just came out with its April 20th ENSO forecast. It currently shows that we have neutral ENSO conditions and is giving a 60% chance that they will continue through the end of the 2020 Hurricane Season. They currently give around a 30% chance of La Nina conditions developing in the fall. If that would occur it could increase the likelihood for an above average season.
In looking at the tropics, we have above average water temperatures in the Caribbean and right along the coast of Central Africa with below average water temperatures across the Eastern and Central Atlantic (see first image below).
In looking at the current Saharan Air Layer Analysis (second image) we can see extensive dry air and Saharan dust across the entire Tropical Atlantic extending into the Caribbean Sea.
In light of all the above I am currently forecasting an above average season with a slow start and potentially busy finish to the season with areas of greatest risk being the Caribbean, northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico as well as the Carolinas. The warm water in the far eastern Atlantic could lead to an above average Cape Verde season as well.
On average we see 12 named storms/ year with 6-7 hurricanes of which 2-3 become major hurricanes. The overall risk for South Florida should be around average. The average risk of hurricane conditions being experienced in South Florida is about 14% chance per year.
Last year rainfall at my house totaled 58.08 ", below my 30 year running average of 67.55".
I'll be watching closely as usual and will write Updates as the need arises.
Hoping for a quiet season for all,
Matt.