Good morning.
2022 is currently forecast to be an above average hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin. La Nina conditions returned in September last year, however thanks to Sam the 2021 season ended quietly. Whereas the NWS had expected the current La Nina to end by early summer, the past month has actually seen a further drop in water temperatures in the eastern Pacific. It is now looking more likely the the present La Nina will persist through most if not all of the 2022 Hurricane Season. La Ninas are associated with reduced shear across the Caribbean and Western Atlantic and subsequently are usually associated with more tropical storms and hurricanes. So far the warmest waters are in the Gulf of Mexico and the Western Atlantic. Therefore the areas of greatest risk this year appear to be the north central and eastern Gulf of Mexico, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, the Bahamas and SE Florida and the Carolinas. It does NOT mean all of these areas will have storms this years. Just greater than average risk. For SE Florida for example, we see hurricane conditions on average 1 in 7 years or 14% risk. Even if the risk was 20%, it is still unlikely that any specific area will have a storm.
2021 was an extremely dry year at my house with total rainfall of only 25.45" well below my 32 year running average of 66.79". I believe this was a very localized phenomenon as other parts of South Florida were not nearly as dry. As opposed to 2020 we had no rain events. (See Preseason Forecast from last year 4-23-21.)
Remember the absolute number of storms is not what is important, its where they go. Last year was on overall active year however most went out to sea.
Hopefully this year they all will.
With best wishes to all,
Matt.
2022 is currently forecast to be an above average hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin. La Nina conditions returned in September last year, however thanks to Sam the 2021 season ended quietly. Whereas the NWS had expected the current La Nina to end by early summer, the past month has actually seen a further drop in water temperatures in the eastern Pacific. It is now looking more likely the the present La Nina will persist through most if not all of the 2022 Hurricane Season. La Ninas are associated with reduced shear across the Caribbean and Western Atlantic and subsequently are usually associated with more tropical storms and hurricanes. So far the warmest waters are in the Gulf of Mexico and the Western Atlantic. Therefore the areas of greatest risk this year appear to be the north central and eastern Gulf of Mexico, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, the Bahamas and SE Florida and the Carolinas. It does NOT mean all of these areas will have storms this years. Just greater than average risk. For SE Florida for example, we see hurricane conditions on average 1 in 7 years or 14% risk. Even if the risk was 20%, it is still unlikely that any specific area will have a storm.
2021 was an extremely dry year at my house with total rainfall of only 25.45" well below my 32 year running average of 66.79". I believe this was a very localized phenomenon as other parts of South Florida were not nearly as dry. As opposed to 2020 we had no rain events. (See Preseason Forecast from last year 4-23-21.)
Remember the absolute number of storms is not what is important, its where they go. Last year was on overall active year however most went out to sea.
Hopefully this year they all will.
With best wishes to all,
Matt.