Good morning.
2023 turned out to be an average Hurricane season, though overall active in total number of storms with 20 storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. On average there are 12 storms, 7 hurricanes and 2 - 3 major hurricanes.
Fortunately most went out to sea. See 2023 tracks below.
The 2024 season is shaping up to be a potentially very active season with an increased risk for major hurricanes. Our current El Nino, which has led to a cooler wetter winter, is rapidly fading and it now appears likely that we will have La Nina conditions by late July. La Ninas are characterized by below average water temperatures in the Eastern Pacific and reduced shear across the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic and a resultant increase in tropical activity.
Water temperatures currently are above average across the Eastern Atlantic and the Tropical Atlantic as well as the extreme Western Caribbean. This should translate into an active Cape Verde season with more long track storms and potentially more major hurricanes. The Colorado State University is currently forecasting 23 storms with 15 hurricanes and 5 major.
The areas at greatest risk this year appear to be the NE Caribbean, Cuba, the Bahamas, Florida (particularly South Florida), the Yucatan Peninsula and the Central Gulf of Mexico.
(See analog Hotspots diagram with location of storms in past from years with similar conditions.)
Rainfall at my house in 2023 totaled 75.86", above my 34 yr running average of 67.26 ".
Notes hurricanes are still low probability events and even if we have an increased risk this year it is still unlikely that we will get one, however we need to be prepared.
On average our risk of seeing hurricane conditions any given year is around 14%. Also, it's not the number of storms that counts, it's where they go. If we have 25 and they all go out to sea it would be a great year. Saying that note, the Bermuda high is forecast to be strong this year which could lead to more landfalling storms.
Wishing everyone a great and safe 2024,
Matt.
2024 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names:
Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Francine
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Milton
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sara
Tony
Valerie
William
2023 turned out to be an average Hurricane season, though overall active in total number of storms with 20 storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. On average there are 12 storms, 7 hurricanes and 2 - 3 major hurricanes.
Fortunately most went out to sea. See 2023 tracks below.
The 2024 season is shaping up to be a potentially very active season with an increased risk for major hurricanes. Our current El Nino, which has led to a cooler wetter winter, is rapidly fading and it now appears likely that we will have La Nina conditions by late July. La Ninas are characterized by below average water temperatures in the Eastern Pacific and reduced shear across the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic and a resultant increase in tropical activity.
Water temperatures currently are above average across the Eastern Atlantic and the Tropical Atlantic as well as the extreme Western Caribbean. This should translate into an active Cape Verde season with more long track storms and potentially more major hurricanes. The Colorado State University is currently forecasting 23 storms with 15 hurricanes and 5 major.
The areas at greatest risk this year appear to be the NE Caribbean, Cuba, the Bahamas, Florida (particularly South Florida), the Yucatan Peninsula and the Central Gulf of Mexico.
(See analog Hotspots diagram with location of storms in past from years with similar conditions.)
Rainfall at my house in 2023 totaled 75.86", above my 34 yr running average of 67.26 ".
Notes hurricanes are still low probability events and even if we have an increased risk this year it is still unlikely that we will get one, however we need to be prepared.
On average our risk of seeing hurricane conditions any given year is around 14%. Also, it's not the number of storms that counts, it's where they go. If we have 25 and they all go out to sea it would be a great year. Saying that note, the Bermuda high is forecast to be strong this year which could lead to more landfalling storms.
Wishing everyone a great and safe 2024,
Matt.
2024 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names:
Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Francine
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Milton
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sara
Tony
Valerie
William