Good afternoon.
2020 was a busy year in the Tropics though a fairly quiet year for South Florida. Louisiana, the Gulf Coast, the Caribbean and the Carolinas received most of the activity. What lead to the overall increase in activity was the presence of La Nina conditions, which still exist. The current La Nina is expected to end in May or June with neutral ENSO conditions existing until September, October or November when La Nina conditions are expected to returns. El Ninos are associated with increased shear across the Caribbean leading to a reduction in the number of storms. Conversely La Ninas are associated with a decrease in shear and a resultant increase in tropical activity. Neutral Condition are associated with an average number of storms. In light of this I would anticipate an average start to the season, unless the current La Nina lasts longer than expected, with a possible increase in activity late, depending just if and when La Nina conditions should return.
If you look at the chart of sea surface temperatures below you can see the warm water is in the Tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean, the Bahamas and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Therefore for this year the areas at greatest risk will be northern Caribbean Islands, the Bahamas, Florida, the Carolinas and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. With a warmer Eastern Tropical Atlantic than we've seen in the past several years we may have an active Cape Verde season with long track storms, especially if a La Nina should return in September. Hopefully it will wait until November or later.
Rainfall at my house in 2020 measure 85.45 inches well above my 31 year running average of 68.12 inches. Looking back on the rainfall data in 2020 it illustrates the importance of rain events. In 2020 we had three major rain events first May 14-18, a stalled front just north of South Florida brought four days of moist southwest flow with approximately 9 inches of rain falling. May 24 and 25th due to southerly flow from an upper level low south of Cuba pumping up deep tropical moisture led to over 11 inches of rain in those two days and Tropical Storm Eta, November 7-9 which passed through the upper and middle keys dropping another 11+ inches of rain.
In 2019 the rainfall total was 58.08 inches.
In 2018 the total was 52.37 inches.
in 2017 the total was 76.70 inches with the main rain event being Hurricane Irma, September 9-11 which dropped approximately 9 inches of rain.
Three rain events in one year is very unusual and accounted for over 30 inches of rainfall leading to our very wet overall 2020. Due to the two rain events in May we had over 21 inches of rain setting a record for the month; in fact May and June last year we had 34.05 inches of rain !
Hoping for a quiet year for all and that all the storms move out to sea.
Matt.
2021 Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Names:Ana Bill Claudette Danny Elsa
Fred Grace Henri Ida Julian
Kate Larry Mindy Nicholas Odette
Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor
Wanda
2020 was a busy year in the Tropics though a fairly quiet year for South Florida. Louisiana, the Gulf Coast, the Caribbean and the Carolinas received most of the activity. What lead to the overall increase in activity was the presence of La Nina conditions, which still exist. The current La Nina is expected to end in May or June with neutral ENSO conditions existing until September, October or November when La Nina conditions are expected to returns. El Ninos are associated with increased shear across the Caribbean leading to a reduction in the number of storms. Conversely La Ninas are associated with a decrease in shear and a resultant increase in tropical activity. Neutral Condition are associated with an average number of storms. In light of this I would anticipate an average start to the season, unless the current La Nina lasts longer than expected, with a possible increase in activity late, depending just if and when La Nina conditions should return.
If you look at the chart of sea surface temperatures below you can see the warm water is in the Tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean, the Bahamas and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Therefore for this year the areas at greatest risk will be northern Caribbean Islands, the Bahamas, Florida, the Carolinas and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. With a warmer Eastern Tropical Atlantic than we've seen in the past several years we may have an active Cape Verde season with long track storms, especially if a La Nina should return in September. Hopefully it will wait until November or later.
Rainfall at my house in 2020 measure 85.45 inches well above my 31 year running average of 68.12 inches. Looking back on the rainfall data in 2020 it illustrates the importance of rain events. In 2020 we had three major rain events first May 14-18, a stalled front just north of South Florida brought four days of moist southwest flow with approximately 9 inches of rain falling. May 24 and 25th due to southerly flow from an upper level low south of Cuba pumping up deep tropical moisture led to over 11 inches of rain in those two days and Tropical Storm Eta, November 7-9 which passed through the upper and middle keys dropping another 11+ inches of rain.
In 2019 the rainfall total was 58.08 inches.
In 2018 the total was 52.37 inches.
in 2017 the total was 76.70 inches with the main rain event being Hurricane Irma, September 9-11 which dropped approximately 9 inches of rain.
Three rain events in one year is very unusual and accounted for over 30 inches of rainfall leading to our very wet overall 2020. Due to the two rain events in May we had over 21 inches of rain setting a record for the month; in fact May and June last year we had 34.05 inches of rain !
Hoping for a quiet year for all and that all the storms move out to sea.
Matt.
2021 Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Names:Ana Bill Claudette Danny Elsa
Fred Grace Henri Ida Julian
Kate Larry Mindy Nicholas Odette
Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor
Wanda