Preseason Tropical Update 4/15/23
Good morning.
2022 started slow but ended with 2 Hurricanes hitting Florida. Ian to the Ft Myers area on 9/28 as a strong Cat 4 and H. Nicole to the east central coast as a minimal Cat 1 on 11/10.
In 2022 the Tropical Atlantic was in a weak La Nina, usually associated with increased tropical activity. Currently we have neutral El Nino conditions, however over the past month sea surface temperatures have been steadily warming along the western Pacific Coast of South America. NOAA is currently forecasting El Nino conditions to develop between May and July (62% chance) with a 40% chance of a strong El Nino and 10% chance of no El Nino. El Ninos are usually associated with below average tropical activity due to increased shear across the Caribbean and Western Tropical Atlantic.
Colorado State University released their forecast on Thursday for the 2023 Hurricane Season. Their forecast is for 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. (Which is for around average season activity.)
One of the main drivers this season is going to be the oncoming El Nino, which should quell the number of storms some, as compared to if we had a season with either neutral ENSO conditions or La Nina conditions. That said, it was noted in the forecast that the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic and the sub-tropical Atlantic is much warmer than average. This warmth could offset the negative effects of the El Nino conditions and thus we could still see a fairly active hurricane season in the Atlantic, despite the oncoming El Nino conditions.
This season the areas at greatest risk appear to be the Carolinas, the Central Gulf Coast, The Bahamas and the East Coast of Florida.
2022 unlike 2021 saw above average rainfall due to 3 rain events. Rainfall at my house totaled 73.68 inches above my 33 year running average of 67.00 inches.
Remember the absolute number of storms is not what is important, it's where they go. If there are 30 and they all go out to sea it would be a good year. Conversely if there is one and it hits you, it's not. Predicting where exactly they will go is not predictable at this time. It all comes down to the conditions that exist at the time they form.
Hoping for a quiet 2023 Tropical Season,
Matt.
Good morning.
2022 started slow but ended with 2 Hurricanes hitting Florida. Ian to the Ft Myers area on 9/28 as a strong Cat 4 and H. Nicole to the east central coast as a minimal Cat 1 on 11/10.
In 2022 the Tropical Atlantic was in a weak La Nina, usually associated with increased tropical activity. Currently we have neutral El Nino conditions, however over the past month sea surface temperatures have been steadily warming along the western Pacific Coast of South America. NOAA is currently forecasting El Nino conditions to develop between May and July (62% chance) with a 40% chance of a strong El Nino and 10% chance of no El Nino. El Ninos are usually associated with below average tropical activity due to increased shear across the Caribbean and Western Tropical Atlantic.
Colorado State University released their forecast on Thursday for the 2023 Hurricane Season. Their forecast is for 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. (Which is for around average season activity.)
One of the main drivers this season is going to be the oncoming El Nino, which should quell the number of storms some, as compared to if we had a season with either neutral ENSO conditions or La Nina conditions. That said, it was noted in the forecast that the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic and the sub-tropical Atlantic is much warmer than average. This warmth could offset the negative effects of the El Nino conditions and thus we could still see a fairly active hurricane season in the Atlantic, despite the oncoming El Nino conditions.
This season the areas at greatest risk appear to be the Carolinas, the Central Gulf Coast, The Bahamas and the East Coast of Florida.
2022 unlike 2021 saw above average rainfall due to 3 rain events. Rainfall at my house totaled 73.68 inches above my 33 year running average of 67.00 inches.
Remember the absolute number of storms is not what is important, it's where they go. If there are 30 and they all go out to sea it would be a good year. Conversely if there is one and it hits you, it's not. Predicting where exactly they will go is not predictable at this time. It all comes down to the conditions that exist at the time they form.
Hoping for a quiet 2023 Tropical Season,
Matt.