Good morning.
In looking at the water vapor loop this morning you will see that Dorian has stalled over east central Grand Bahama Island. It is currently approximately 150 miles to the east of Hutchinson Island. It should wobble in this area today and tomorrow start moving north west then north and north east. The NFC East track has shifted slightly west however note it is further west than the model consensus. The model consensus brings Dorian approximately 50 miles from the coast. Dorian’s eye has expanded to 20 nautical miles today from 10 nautical miles yesterday. Dorian’s wind field has expanded some. Hurricane force winds extend 30 miles to the west of the center, strong tropical storm force winds in the 50 to 70 mile an hour range extend 50 miles to the west of the center and storm force winds 80 miles to the west of the center. Major hurricane force winds extend 15 miles from the center. If it remains on the NHC‘s track it will be too close to call as to whether some parts of the state may experience hurricane conditions. Because of this areas from Jupiter and north should prepare for possible hurricane conditions. Most of the East Coast will experience a tropical storm. If it remains 50 miles off shore, in line with the model consensus it would be good. Dorian remains a threat to the Outer Banks.
if you look at the bottom diagram you’ll see that there are several new areas of interest however none pose a threat to the US at this time.
I will write again this evening and will post a diagram of the wind field projections later this morning when it becomes available.
Until later, Matt.
In looking at the water vapor loop this morning you will see that Dorian has stalled over east central Grand Bahama Island. It is currently approximately 150 miles to the east of Hutchinson Island. It should wobble in this area today and tomorrow start moving north west then north and north east. The NFC East track has shifted slightly west however note it is further west than the model consensus. The model consensus brings Dorian approximately 50 miles from the coast. Dorian’s eye has expanded to 20 nautical miles today from 10 nautical miles yesterday. Dorian’s wind field has expanded some. Hurricane force winds extend 30 miles to the west of the center, strong tropical storm force winds in the 50 to 70 mile an hour range extend 50 miles to the west of the center and storm force winds 80 miles to the west of the center. Major hurricane force winds extend 15 miles from the center. If it remains on the NHC‘s track it will be too close to call as to whether some parts of the state may experience hurricane conditions. Because of this areas from Jupiter and north should prepare for possible hurricane conditions. Most of the East Coast will experience a tropical storm. If it remains 50 miles off shore, in line with the model consensus it would be good. Dorian remains a threat to the Outer Banks.
if you look at the bottom diagram you’ll see that there are several new areas of interest however none pose a threat to the US at this time.
I will write again this evening and will post a diagram of the wind field projections later this morning when it becomes available.
Until later, Matt.