Good evening.
At 11 am the NHC officially acknowledged Fred's dissipation though they still expect that it may regenerate. My thoughts about it are unchanged since this am. Grace however appears to have chosen the southern route and the NHC have shifted their track accordingly. Early this morning it appeared to be moving WNW however if you look at the current water vapor loop below you can see that it has taken a decided WSW move, ? wobble. The net effect is that Grace has moved overall due west today and has entered the Caribbean. The NHC's current track is in alignment with the model consensus along the southern scenario that I mentioned this am. Grace is currently a tiny storm and hopefully will meet the same fate as Fred. We'll see. It is moving rather quickly as you can see below.
I will probably post tomorrow early afternoon as it will take that time to see just how Grace approaches Hispaniola. That will be key. If it takes the NHC's track it would be severely disrupted. A more northerly track could be of concern but hopefully will remain a minimal tropical storm, or less.
Beyond Grace Saharan dust and dry air has once again invaded the Eastern Tropical Atlantic and I suspect that we will not see further activity for 1-2 weeks or more.
Until next time,
Matt.
At 11 am the NHC officially acknowledged Fred's dissipation though they still expect that it may regenerate. My thoughts about it are unchanged since this am. Grace however appears to have chosen the southern route and the NHC have shifted their track accordingly. Early this morning it appeared to be moving WNW however if you look at the current water vapor loop below you can see that it has taken a decided WSW move, ? wobble. The net effect is that Grace has moved overall due west today and has entered the Caribbean. The NHC's current track is in alignment with the model consensus along the southern scenario that I mentioned this am. Grace is currently a tiny storm and hopefully will meet the same fate as Fred. We'll see. It is moving rather quickly as you can see below.
I will probably post tomorrow early afternoon as it will take that time to see just how Grace approaches Hispaniola. That will be key. If it takes the NHC's track it would be severely disrupted. A more northerly track could be of concern but hopefully will remain a minimal tropical storm, or less.
Beyond Grace Saharan dust and dry air has once again invaded the Eastern Tropical Atlantic and I suspect that we will not see further activity for 1-2 weeks or more.
Until next time,
Matt.
