Good evening.
"Potential Tropical Cyclone #1" continues to head toward SW Florida. Hurricane Hunters were in the system recently and were still unable to find a discrete center of circulation nor any storm force winds. It remains a trough of low pressure with several vortices along it. Frankly it is irrelevant. This will be a RAIN EVENT. It remains in a high shear environment and the estimated center remains just to the west of the western most convection. It rained a lot in South and Central Florida today however the real rain will begin tonight and last through Saturday afternoon. Rainfall estimates have been increased to 6-12" with some areas potentially receiving up to 20 inches. Currently the NHC is predicting it to be a 40-45 mph storm at land fall early tomorrow afternoon. As all the weather is east of the center, once it passes conditions will improve quickly. It will speed up as it approaches.
My estimates for location and winds for SE FL have not changes, winds 20s with gusts to 30s. The Fort Myers area remains at greatest risk however as it is a weak diffuse system all of SW Florida will receive similar weather. Heavy rain with wInds in the 30s with gusts to 40s.
My best to all.
Until next time,
Matt.
"Potential Tropical Cyclone #1" continues to head toward SW Florida. Hurricane Hunters were in the system recently and were still unable to find a discrete center of circulation nor any storm force winds. It remains a trough of low pressure with several vortices along it. Frankly it is irrelevant. This will be a RAIN EVENT. It remains in a high shear environment and the estimated center remains just to the west of the western most convection. It rained a lot in South and Central Florida today however the real rain will begin tonight and last through Saturday afternoon. Rainfall estimates have been increased to 6-12" with some areas potentially receiving up to 20 inches. Currently the NHC is predicting it to be a 40-45 mph storm at land fall early tomorrow afternoon. As all the weather is east of the center, once it passes conditions will improve quickly. It will speed up as it approaches.
My estimates for location and winds for SE FL have not changes, winds 20s with gusts to 30s. The Fort Myers area remains at greatest risk however as it is a weak diffuse system all of SW Florida will receive similar weather. Heavy rain with wInds in the 30s with gusts to 40s.
My best to all.
Until next time,
Matt.