Good morning.
At 5 am H. Elsa was located at 16.2 N and 69.0 W with a minimum pressure of 998 mbs and was moving WNW @ 31 mph with peak winds of 75 mph (which is probably generous. You usually need a pressure of around 983 mbs to see that, see Weather Trivia on this site). Due to its rapid forward motion Elsa has become uncoupled and has weakened some with its center to the NW of most of its weather which is displaced to the SE.
On its present track it will most likely just nip the southern tip of Hispaniola. With its rapid speed and inertia it will be hard for it to change direction quickly.
If you look at the models there are two main solutions emerging. The first which is the NHC's track continues Elsa on its present course passing along the southern coast of Cuba before crossing central Cuba and entering the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The cold front mentioned yesterday is now across northern Florida, where it will probably stall, would then direct it into the West Coast of Florida. The second solution takes Elsa into Eastern Cuba, where with the center displaced to the NW of its weather, it could cross eastern Cuba, or the eye could reform along the NE coast of Cuba. If this were to occur a track east of Florida toward Grand Bahama would be more likely. Due to anticipated land interactions Elsa is forecast to be a tropical storm when in the vicinity of Florida or the Bahamas. Due to significant inertia I would favor the first solution ? 60% probability, ? 40% for the later. Just where it is around this time tomorrow will be the key.
On the present NHC track SE Florida would receive peak winds in the 30s-40s with a lot of rain. If it takes the eastern track 20s-30s with little rain. If it should go in between and hit South Florida directly 60s-70s (less likely ? 10% chance) and lots of rain .
I'll write again tomorrow, sooner if needed.
Until next time,
Matt.
At 5 am H. Elsa was located at 16.2 N and 69.0 W with a minimum pressure of 998 mbs and was moving WNW @ 31 mph with peak winds of 75 mph (which is probably generous. You usually need a pressure of around 983 mbs to see that, see Weather Trivia on this site). Due to its rapid forward motion Elsa has become uncoupled and has weakened some with its center to the NW of most of its weather which is displaced to the SE.
On its present track it will most likely just nip the southern tip of Hispaniola. With its rapid speed and inertia it will be hard for it to change direction quickly.
If you look at the models there are two main solutions emerging. The first which is the NHC's track continues Elsa on its present course passing along the southern coast of Cuba before crossing central Cuba and entering the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The cold front mentioned yesterday is now across northern Florida, where it will probably stall, would then direct it into the West Coast of Florida. The second solution takes Elsa into Eastern Cuba, where with the center displaced to the NW of its weather, it could cross eastern Cuba, or the eye could reform along the NE coast of Cuba. If this were to occur a track east of Florida toward Grand Bahama would be more likely. Due to anticipated land interactions Elsa is forecast to be a tropical storm when in the vicinity of Florida or the Bahamas. Due to significant inertia I would favor the first solution ? 60% probability, ? 40% for the later. Just where it is around this time tomorrow will be the key.
On the present NHC track SE Florida would receive peak winds in the 30s-40s with a lot of rain. If it takes the eastern track 20s-30s with little rain. If it should go in between and hit South Florida directly 60s-70s (less likely ? 10% chance) and lots of rain .
I'll write again tomorrow, sooner if needed.
Until next time,
Matt.
