Good evening. At 8 pm Isaias was located over the Central Bahamas and was moving NW at 15 mph. Since this morning the NHC has moved its track westward due to greater strength of the ridge to its NE and slower than expected movement of the frontal system moving eastward across the US. They are calling for it to come ashore in the Jupiter area and then move along the coast. The window between the high pressure ridges to its NE and NW really has not changed much and my track remains east of theirs crossing western Grand Bahama in the Freeport area and remaining off the Florida coast. On the NHC’s track it would pass around 100 miles east of Miami late tomorrow night. Anticipated winds would be in the 20s - 30s with gusts to around 40. Cat 1 hurricane conditions would occur from Stuart north. I anticipate that we will see a shift in the models tomorrow a little further east. It should slow down as it approaches. This should also allow it to start to move NNW and eventually N and NE. I’ll write again tomorrow. Until then ....Matt. | |