Hello all.
Just writing a quick post assessing the current conditions in the tropics. In a nut shell, so far so good.
Remnants of a weak tropical wave are over and just east of South Florida now, will bring increased chances of rain today and tomorrow for South Florida.
The NHC is giving a tropical wave over the central Atlantic a 50% chance of development over the next 5 days. Dry air to its north and increasing shear to its N and W will hamper significant development. In addition an upper level low over the north central Gulf of Mexico should produce an upper level SW flow in 2 -3 days which should prevent whatever is left of it from affecting the state of Florida.
The only area that I see of concern is a robust wave over central Africa which is probably at least 2 weeks away from the US. We'll have to see what conditions prevail at that time however abundant Saharan dust over the eastern and central Atlantic will hamper anything coming off of Africa for some time.
Tropical Storms Flossie and Erick will both miss Hawaii.
I'll let you know if things should change but the US probably has at least 2 weeks off without concern from the tropics.
Have a great summer.
Matt.
Just writing a quick post assessing the current conditions in the tropics. In a nut shell, so far so good.
Remnants of a weak tropical wave are over and just east of South Florida now, will bring increased chances of rain today and tomorrow for South Florida.
The NHC is giving a tropical wave over the central Atlantic a 50% chance of development over the next 5 days. Dry air to its north and increasing shear to its N and W will hamper significant development. In addition an upper level low over the north central Gulf of Mexico should produce an upper level SW flow in 2 -3 days which should prevent whatever is left of it from affecting the state of Florida.
The only area that I see of concern is a robust wave over central Africa which is probably at least 2 weeks away from the US. We'll have to see what conditions prevail at that time however abundant Saharan dust over the eastern and central Atlantic will hamper anything coming off of Africa for some time.
Tropical Storms Flossie and Erick will both miss Hawaii.
I'll let you know if things should change but the US probably has at least 2 weeks off without concern from the tropics.
Have a great summer.
Matt.