Good evening.
The 5 pm model run is showing an interesting trend. The main change has been that Dorian is slowing down earlier than previously anticipated. The net result of this is that the turn to the north Tuesday afternoon may occur off shore. The latest track runs right along the coast. That would be bad, however it could easily occur off shore possibly even sparing the state and possibly even the US from a hurricane. Tropical storm conditions would still be likely. We still need to prepare as this may me a last minute move and it may not happen in time but the possibility is intriguing. See the global models below. This may be a temporary shift but I have my fingers crossed. The current NHC track brings it near Vero Beach. We will probably continue to see further fluctuations in the track as slow moving systems are harder to predict.
Until tomorrow, Matt.
The 5 pm model run is showing an interesting trend. The main change has been that Dorian is slowing down earlier than previously anticipated. The net result of this is that the turn to the north Tuesday afternoon may occur off shore. The latest track runs right along the coast. That would be bad, however it could easily occur off shore possibly even sparing the state and possibly even the US from a hurricane. Tropical storm conditions would still be likely. We still need to prepare as this may me a last minute move and it may not happen in time but the possibility is intriguing. See the global models below. This may be a temporary shift but I have my fingers crossed. The current NHC track brings it near Vero Beach. We will probably continue to see further fluctuations in the track as slow moving systems are harder to predict.
Until tomorrow, Matt.