Good morning.
The National Weather Service/ NOAA / NHC revised their season forecast yesterday due to the fairly abrupt end of El Nino conditions. We currently have a neutral-ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation). El Ninos are characterized by cooler, wetter winters and an increase in shear across the Caribbean and western Atlantic. If you look at the Wind Shear Analysis below you will see lots of green. Basically green is favorable for tropical development, yellow border line and red hostile for development. A week ago (and the entire first half of the year) this looked very different with lots of red.
The good news is that there is nothing at all in the tropics right now. In addition note the abundant dry air and Saharan Dust over the eastern and central Atlantic. This will hinder the development of anything coming off of Africa for some time however each wave that passes will erode a little bit of this layer and in a month we may be looking at a different picture.
This does NOT mean that we will get a storm. Where any storm goes depends on the unique environment conditions that exist at the time it is out there and that is something we cannot predict at this time. If you look at the bottom chart, Sea Surface Temperatures you will see that Gulf of Mexico remains the area of greatest risk this season. NOAA is predicting a 45% chance of an above average system and a 55% chance of an average or below average season. Due to the abundant dust my guess would still go for average, however the absolute number of storms is not what counts. It's weather you get one or not. And no one can predict that.
I'll let you know as things evolve though I continue to suspect a slow start to the season with an increase on activity late, (Sept-Oct).
Until next time,
Matt.
The National Weather Service/ NOAA / NHC revised their season forecast yesterday due to the fairly abrupt end of El Nino conditions. We currently have a neutral-ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation). El Ninos are characterized by cooler, wetter winters and an increase in shear across the Caribbean and western Atlantic. If you look at the Wind Shear Analysis below you will see lots of green. Basically green is favorable for tropical development, yellow border line and red hostile for development. A week ago (and the entire first half of the year) this looked very different with lots of red.
The good news is that there is nothing at all in the tropics right now. In addition note the abundant dry air and Saharan Dust over the eastern and central Atlantic. This will hinder the development of anything coming off of Africa for some time however each wave that passes will erode a little bit of this layer and in a month we may be looking at a different picture.
This does NOT mean that we will get a storm. Where any storm goes depends on the unique environment conditions that exist at the time it is out there and that is something we cannot predict at this time. If you look at the bottom chart, Sea Surface Temperatures you will see that Gulf of Mexico remains the area of greatest risk this season. NOAA is predicting a 45% chance of an above average system and a 55% chance of an average or below average season. Due to the abundant dust my guess would still go for average, however the absolute number of storms is not what counts. It's weather you get one or not. And no one can predict that.
I'll let you know as things evolve though I continue to suspect a slow start to the season with an increase on activity late, (Sept-Oct).
Until next time,
Matt.
