Good morning.
I am writing about an area of disturbed weather over South Florida, The Florida Straits, Cuba and the NW Caribbean Sea, see image above. The NHC is expecting an area of weak low pressure to form today over the Florida Straits and for it to drift northward right along the east coast of Florida over the next several days. They are currently giving it a 40% chance of tropical development over the next 5 days. Conditions are conducive for development over the next couple of days however by Sunday shear will increase and if nothing forms by then it will become less likely.
Looking at Key West radar this am there is no circulation in this area currently and development if any should be slow to occur. Showers are currently moving out of the SSE with a lot of associated tropical moisture. I anticipate a lot of showers over the next 4-5 days but probably not much more for South Florida.
I'll let you know if things should change but I am not overly concerned at present.
Elsewhere Maria and Lee are moving off to the ENE away from the US and may even Fujiwhara, see Weather Trivia Section on this site under "MORE". Not much else is out there. Tropical Africa remains quiet and I anticipate that the Cape Verde Season is over or nearly done for the year. In October the areas which we'll need to watch are the NW Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.
Have a great weekend, and have an umbrella or raincoat handy.
Until next time, Matt.
I am writing about an area of disturbed weather over South Florida, The Florida Straits, Cuba and the NW Caribbean Sea, see image above. The NHC is expecting an area of weak low pressure to form today over the Florida Straits and for it to drift northward right along the east coast of Florida over the next several days. They are currently giving it a 40% chance of tropical development over the next 5 days. Conditions are conducive for development over the next couple of days however by Sunday shear will increase and if nothing forms by then it will become less likely.
Looking at Key West radar this am there is no circulation in this area currently and development if any should be slow to occur. Showers are currently moving out of the SSE with a lot of associated tropical moisture. I anticipate a lot of showers over the next 4-5 days but probably not much more for South Florida.
I'll let you know if things should change but I am not overly concerned at present.
Elsewhere Maria and Lee are moving off to the ENE away from the US and may even Fujiwhara, see Weather Trivia Section on this site under "MORE". Not much else is out there. Tropical Africa remains quiet and I anticipate that the Cape Verde Season is over or nearly done for the year. In October the areas which we'll need to watch are the NW Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.
Have a great weekend, and have an umbrella or raincoat handy.
Until next time, Matt.