Good afternoon.
The weak tropical wave which I wrote about last has been moving slowly westward since my last update. I am writing now because it is currently well south of where the NHC had forecast to be at this point in time. It should still miss Florida however its more southerly track could bring it closer to South Florida and the Bahamas.
The key will be if it should enter the Caribbean or not. If it moves north of the Virgin Islands it should miss the US and the Bahamas.
If it should enter the Caribbean a track through the Bahamas would become more likely. It is currently encountering a lot of dry air and Saharan dust and development will be slow to occur.
A stalled frontal boundary just South of Florida will hopefully keep it away from Florida however of note is that it is moving very slowly, currently 10mph, and over time conditions will change. The slower it goes the less certainty in any forecast.
Hopefully in a few days we'll see a shift in its track to the NW as many of the models are forecasting.
I'll be watching it.
Until next time,
Matt.
The weak tropical wave which I wrote about last has been moving slowly westward since my last update. I am writing now because it is currently well south of where the NHC had forecast to be at this point in time. It should still miss Florida however its more southerly track could bring it closer to South Florida and the Bahamas.
The key will be if it should enter the Caribbean or not. If it moves north of the Virgin Islands it should miss the US and the Bahamas.
If it should enter the Caribbean a track through the Bahamas would become more likely. It is currently encountering a lot of dry air and Saharan dust and development will be slow to occur.
A stalled frontal boundary just South of Florida will hopefully keep it away from Florida however of note is that it is moving very slowly, currently 10mph, and over time conditions will change. The slower it goes the less certainty in any forecast.
Hopefully in a few days we'll see a shift in its track to the NW as many of the models are forecasting.
I'll be watching it.
Until next time,
Matt.
