Good morning.
At 11 am Hurricane Matthew was located at 15.6 N and 75.0 W and was moving N @ 6 mph with 140 mph winds, a barometric pressure of 941 mbs and an eye spanning 14 miles. Matthew has been moving due north since late last night and the NHC models are in strong agreement with the track of yesterday for the next 48 hours. After it gets north of Cuba shear will increase and there is some divergence in the models. The stalled frontal boundary now over north Florida is not as strong as was anticipated and a shift in the models more westward is possible after it is north of Cuba. It should still miss South Florida however it is possible that it could get closer to Central and North Florida than the current tracks project. Other models however are further east. I suspect a track close to the current one, possibly just slightly west of it. One thing to note is that the weaker it gets the more westward potential the track. North of Cuba the shear is significant and weakening is anticipated however so far Matthew has been able to fend off most of its shear due to the strong high pressure above it.
I'll write again tomorrow but no cause for alarm at this time.
Matt.
At 11 am Hurricane Matthew was located at 15.6 N and 75.0 W and was moving N @ 6 mph with 140 mph winds, a barometric pressure of 941 mbs and an eye spanning 14 miles. Matthew has been moving due north since late last night and the NHC models are in strong agreement with the track of yesterday for the next 48 hours. After it gets north of Cuba shear will increase and there is some divergence in the models. The stalled frontal boundary now over north Florida is not as strong as was anticipated and a shift in the models more westward is possible after it is north of Cuba. It should still miss South Florida however it is possible that it could get closer to Central and North Florida than the current tracks project. Other models however are further east. I suspect a track close to the current one, possibly just slightly west of it. One thing to note is that the weaker it gets the more westward potential the track. North of Cuba the shear is significant and weakening is anticipated however so far Matthew has been able to fend off most of its shear due to the strong high pressure above it.
I'll write again tomorrow but no cause for alarm at this time.
Matt.
Surface Map at 940-949 mbs
