Good morning.
I am writing about an area of disturbed weather just NW of the Lesser Antilles. The NHC is giving it a 70% chance of tropical or subtropical development over the next 5 d. I am presently not overly concerned by it and suspect the likelihood of development is over stated.
If you look at the Water Vapor Loop below you will notice several features. Moving left to right. First strong SW flow over the SE US, next an upper level low just north of the Virgin Islands which is interacting with the area in question just to its southeast, then to the SE of that, the inter-tropical convergence zone with significant shear over it out of the west.
Next look at the Surface Map and the Wind Shear Analysis below. High pressure just east of Florida and abundant shear over Florida and the SE US should weaken it and ultimately deflect it to the NE.
I will write further if things develop or change however the environment is not conducive for a significant system to develop, or hit us. Due to high SW shear any weather should be NE of the center. As long as it stays even a little to our east we should be fine.
Matt.
I am writing about an area of disturbed weather just NW of the Lesser Antilles. The NHC is giving it a 70% chance of tropical or subtropical development over the next 5 d. I am presently not overly concerned by it and suspect the likelihood of development is over stated.
If you look at the Water Vapor Loop below you will notice several features. Moving left to right. First strong SW flow over the SE US, next an upper level low just north of the Virgin Islands which is interacting with the area in question just to its southeast, then to the SE of that, the inter-tropical convergence zone with significant shear over it out of the west.
Next look at the Surface Map and the Wind Shear Analysis below. High pressure just east of Florida and abundant shear over Florida and the SE US should weaken it and ultimately deflect it to the NE.
I will write further if things develop or change however the environment is not conducive for a significant system to develop, or hit us. Due to high SW shear any weather should be NE of the center. As long as it stays even a little to our east we should be fine.
Matt.
