Good morning.
At 11 am Irma was located at 16.8 N & 53.3 W and was moving W @ 14 mph and is currently headed toward the Northern Leeward Islands, The British Virgin Islands and The US Virgin Islands. Pressures have been dropping and winds have increased some. Since yesterday a few things have happened with Irma. First is that it is south of where the NHC had predicted it to be at this point in time and as noted yesterday the models have shifted to the south. It is supposed to be at its southern most latitude late tonight. Over the past 3 hours Irma has been headed due west. This may be a wobble however if it is an early turn that would be good and if it is a shift in the models to the north and east would be anticipated. It is too early to say. If it should enter the Caribbean and pass over or south of Cuba the risk for South Florida would be greater. If it passes north of the Islands and stays south a track similar to Matthew's from last year is possible. It is still 6 days out. The current NHC track is unlikely to occur. The southern end of the frontal trough over Florida has weakened which could allow it to move further west.
We'll know a little more tomorrow.
Until then, Matt.
At 11 am Irma was located at 16.8 N & 53.3 W and was moving W @ 14 mph and is currently headed toward the Northern Leeward Islands, The British Virgin Islands and The US Virgin Islands. Pressures have been dropping and winds have increased some. Since yesterday a few things have happened with Irma. First is that it is south of where the NHC had predicted it to be at this point in time and as noted yesterday the models have shifted to the south. It is supposed to be at its southern most latitude late tonight. Over the past 3 hours Irma has been headed due west. This may be a wobble however if it is an early turn that would be good and if it is a shift in the models to the north and east would be anticipated. It is too early to say. If it should enter the Caribbean and pass over or south of Cuba the risk for South Florida would be greater. If it passes north of the Islands and stays south a track similar to Matthew's from last year is possible. It is still 6 days out. The current NHC track is unlikely to occur. The southern end of the frontal trough over Florida has weakened which could allow it to move further west.
We'll know a little more tomorrow.
Until then, Matt.