Good morning.
If you look at the water vapor loop below you will notice couple of things. First is that Beryl is now very poorly organized. This was due to it's crossing the Yucatan Peninsula and SW shear from the upper level low talked about yesterday which is now just west of Beryl. The ULL doesn't appear to be moving much at present. In addition the ULL appears to be moving Beryl a little further north, which I discussed yesterday and the NHC track now reflects this with a shift in their track towards South Central Texas. As it moves further north the NHC expects Beryl to be far enough from the ULL that some re-intensification will occur. The NHC is still forecasting it to be an 85-90 mph Cat 1 at landfall.
Predicting the exact point of landfall will be difficult at this time with the absence of a clearly defined center. We'll know more tomorrow. Elsewhere all is quiet, for now
Until next time.
Matt.
If you look at the water vapor loop below you will notice couple of things. First is that Beryl is now very poorly organized. This was due to it's crossing the Yucatan Peninsula and SW shear from the upper level low talked about yesterday which is now just west of Beryl. The ULL doesn't appear to be moving much at present. In addition the ULL appears to be moving Beryl a little further north, which I discussed yesterday and the NHC track now reflects this with a shift in their track towards South Central Texas. As it moves further north the NHC expects Beryl to be far enough from the ULL that some re-intensification will occur. The NHC is still forecasting it to be an 85-90 mph Cat 1 at landfall.
Predicting the exact point of landfall will be difficult at this time with the absence of a clearly defined center. We'll know more tomorrow. Elsewhere all is quiet, for now
Until next time.
Matt.
