Good morning.
Just a quick update. The NHC is tracking another tropical wave currently in the Central Tropical Atlantic. It is expecting it to become a tropical depression in about week. If you look at the Saharan Air Layer Analysis below you can see that it has abundant dry air to its north which will hamper development until it late in the forecast period. As it approaches the Caribbean shear will lessen as well.
Just where it forms, if it does, will be key. If it forms and tracks north of the islands it would likely turn north over the Bahamas and miss the US. Conversely if it enters the Caribbean and tracks south of them and Cuba it could potentially threaten the West Coast of Florida.
We're just going to have to wait and see how things evolve. Conditions in a week will likely be a little different than they are today. I'll likely post again in a few day.
Until next time,
Matt.
P.S. Debby made landfall near Steinhatchee centered over the mouth of the Suwannee River (see 8-3-24, 5 am forecast) and is finally leaving the US.
Just a quick update. The NHC is tracking another tropical wave currently in the Central Tropical Atlantic. It is expecting it to become a tropical depression in about week. If you look at the Saharan Air Layer Analysis below you can see that it has abundant dry air to its north which will hamper development until it late in the forecast period. As it approaches the Caribbean shear will lessen as well.
Just where it forms, if it does, will be key. If it forms and tracks north of the islands it would likely turn north over the Bahamas and miss the US. Conversely if it enters the Caribbean and tracks south of them and Cuba it could potentially threaten the West Coast of Florida.
We're just going to have to wait and see how things evolve. Conditions in a week will likely be a little different than they are today. I'll likely post again in a few day.
Until next time,
Matt.
P.S. Debby made landfall near Steinhatchee centered over the mouth of the Suwannee River (see 8-3-24, 5 am forecast) and is finally leaving the US.
