Good evening.
At 8 pm Hurricane Ida was in the east central Gulf of Mexico and is currently headed in the direction of New Orleans. Today it took a NNW wobble and has since resumed its NW motion however this has caused the models and track to shift further east. On its current trajectory it should pass between New Orlean and Houma in the vicinity of the La Fourche Bayou and Golden Meadow.
Ida is projected to be a 130-140 mph Cat 4 storm at landfall with a very narrow band of hurricane force winds. They are projected to extend 30 miles to the NE and SE of the center and 25 miles to the NW. The major hurricane force winds should be confined to the eye wall. Hurricane hunters are probably in the storm now and hopefully we'll have more information soon about the size of the eye and if an eye wall has formed yet. In a major hurricane "eye wall is everything". If you are outside of the eye wall you usually only receive Cat 1 conditions. (Occasionally Cat 2 in extreme storms.) Due to its forecast rapid intensification I would estimate that the eye will be between 10-20 miles wide at landfall. Eye walls are usually 3-5 miles thick. If we take the 2 larger numbers, 20 mile eye, 5 mile thick eye wall, it would have to pass within 15 miles of you to receive major hurricane conditions. (Possibly as little as 8 if we take the 2 smaller numbers.)
It is going to be close for New Orleans. If it receives eye wall it will be worse than Katrina. Fortunately its moving fairly quickly so its shouldn't be a prolonged event but its going to be very bad for those in its direct path. Stick structures do not fair well in major hurricanes.
Note the ULL in the Gulf is now south of Texas and should have no influence on Ida.
I wish everyone well and that those in its direct path can get out, and that it's center doesn't pass within 15 miles of NOLA.
Until next time,
Matt.
At 8 pm Hurricane Ida was in the east central Gulf of Mexico and is currently headed in the direction of New Orleans. Today it took a NNW wobble and has since resumed its NW motion however this has caused the models and track to shift further east. On its current trajectory it should pass between New Orlean and Houma in the vicinity of the La Fourche Bayou and Golden Meadow.
Ida is projected to be a 130-140 mph Cat 4 storm at landfall with a very narrow band of hurricane force winds. They are projected to extend 30 miles to the NE and SE of the center and 25 miles to the NW. The major hurricane force winds should be confined to the eye wall. Hurricane hunters are probably in the storm now and hopefully we'll have more information soon about the size of the eye and if an eye wall has formed yet. In a major hurricane "eye wall is everything". If you are outside of the eye wall you usually only receive Cat 1 conditions. (Occasionally Cat 2 in extreme storms.) Due to its forecast rapid intensification I would estimate that the eye will be between 10-20 miles wide at landfall. Eye walls are usually 3-5 miles thick. If we take the 2 larger numbers, 20 mile eye, 5 mile thick eye wall, it would have to pass within 15 miles of you to receive major hurricane conditions. (Possibly as little as 8 if we take the 2 smaller numbers.)
It is going to be close for New Orleans. If it receives eye wall it will be worse than Katrina. Fortunately its moving fairly quickly so its shouldn't be a prolonged event but its going to be very bad for those in its direct path. Stick structures do not fair well in major hurricanes.
Note the ULL in the Gulf is now south of Texas and should have no influence on Ida.
I wish everyone well and that those in its direct path can get out, and that it's center doesn't pass within 15 miles of NOLA.
Until next time,
Matt.