Good morning.
At 11 am Hurricane Irma was located at 18.8 N & 43.3 W and was moving just south of west at 15 mph. Due to somewhat cooler water and dry air around it , see below Sahara Air layer image, it has weakened a little and is now a Cat 2 storm. This will be temporary as conditions will become more favorable as it approaches the Leeward Islands and the Bahamas. In looking at the Infra Red loop below you can see a frontal trough has moved a little eastward and is now across NW FL extending into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This should help to keep it away from Florida. The main concern for Florida would be if Irma would slow down, building high pressure over the Atlantic could shift it westward. This is expected to occur later in the forecast period and which is why models are suggesting a more westward move toward the US east coast after it is past Florida. (see Ensemble models below). It is still too early to make an accurate prediction as to ultimate landfall for Irma. There are numerous variables in play which are in constant flux. For now the risk for Florida appears to be lessening however we'll just have to see.
I'll be writing daily for now. Elsewhere the wave to the SE of Irma has weakened, but I'll continue to keep an eye on it.
Until tomorrow, Matt.
At 11 am Hurricane Irma was located at 18.8 N & 43.3 W and was moving just south of west at 15 mph. Due to somewhat cooler water and dry air around it , see below Sahara Air layer image, it has weakened a little and is now a Cat 2 storm. This will be temporary as conditions will become more favorable as it approaches the Leeward Islands and the Bahamas. In looking at the Infra Red loop below you can see a frontal trough has moved a little eastward and is now across NW FL extending into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This should help to keep it away from Florida. The main concern for Florida would be if Irma would slow down, building high pressure over the Atlantic could shift it westward. This is expected to occur later in the forecast period and which is why models are suggesting a more westward move toward the US east coast after it is past Florida. (see Ensemble models below). It is still too early to make an accurate prediction as to ultimate landfall for Irma. There are numerous variables in play which are in constant flux. For now the risk for Florida appears to be lessening however we'll just have to see.
I'll be writing daily for now. Elsewhere the wave to the SE of Irma has weakened, but I'll continue to keep an eye on it.
Until tomorrow, Matt.