Good morning.
At 5am Irma was located at 22.5 N & 78.8 W and was moving WNW @ 12 mph. Irma is currently brushing the north coast of Central Cuba and should do so most of today. In looking at the water vapor loop (second diagram below) you can see that Irma is weakening. This is due to land interaction and disruption of its circulation by the mountains of Cuba. The NHC is forecasting it to be a 150 mph storm as it approaches the west coast of Florida tomorrow. I suspect it will be weaker, however they need everyone to be prepared for the worst. Increasing shear to its north should prevent significant strengthening as it moves northward, however intensity forecasts are very hard to make. Irma continues to move south of their prior track which should allow it to move a little further west and the current track reflects it with a shift towards Fort Myers-Tampa. Prior to its NW-N turn it is expected to slow down. This may prolong our weather event.
Irma is a very large storm. The eye is 30 miles across currently. When it approaches Florida the wind field on the east side of the storm due to shear will be very large.
The forecast winds are as follows***very Important**
The eye wall will span 30 miles from the center (the Cat 4 winds)
Hurricane force winds 70 miles
Strong Tropical storm force winds 120 miles
Tropical Storm force winds 220 miles
The first outer bands are coming into South Florida now, then there should be a lull followed by winds steadily increasing starting early afternoon, mid-late morning in the Keys.
On the current track it is forecast to pass approximately 100 miles west of Miami. IF that occurs peak winds would be in the 60s in Miami with gusts into the 70s. With the size of the wind field they could last over 36 hours, From this afternoon until Monday am. For your given location everyone can calculate what winds you can expect. Pay attention to the coordinates of the storm. You can find the coordinates of your location by going to http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-80.32930450451518&lat=25.615100138543553#.WbPL-P1K2Uk
Go to the topographic map and pan in and out to find you general location then click on it. A green box will appear and the coordinates of your location will be under the diagram. Each degree of longitude and latitude in our area is approximately 70 miles (about 69). If the track brings it 1.1 degrees from you it will be 77 miles away etc.
Winds should start out of the SE, then S, then SW, then W then NW. The strongest will be the SE, S and SW. At home keep all interior doors closed. Stay away from windows even if they are shuttered. Carry a towel with you to protect yourself from debris or glass in the event of a breach. Don't open exterior doors or doors to your garage during the storm. Wear pants. If your in an area of Hurricane force winds find an interior room, generally the smaller the better. Remove things from walls or shelves in that room in the event of a breach. If a breach occurs lay on the floor. Cover yourself with what ever is available. Stay safe. On the current track Miami Dade, except for extreme western portions should see primarily a tree storm. There will be lots of trees and branches down. Watch out for power lines. Power is likely to go out. With the storm passing to the west of us expect lots of rain. 10-20" are currently forecast. Watch out for flooding.
Elsewhere Jose is expected to stall in a few days so we won't be able to fully write it off yet, see below, we'll have to re-evaluate him later.
I'll write later but it is appearing more likely that Miami will avoid the worse of the storm. The Middle Keys and the West Coast of Florida will see much more.
My best to all, Matt.
At 5am Irma was located at 22.5 N & 78.8 W and was moving WNW @ 12 mph. Irma is currently brushing the north coast of Central Cuba and should do so most of today. In looking at the water vapor loop (second diagram below) you can see that Irma is weakening. This is due to land interaction and disruption of its circulation by the mountains of Cuba. The NHC is forecasting it to be a 150 mph storm as it approaches the west coast of Florida tomorrow. I suspect it will be weaker, however they need everyone to be prepared for the worst. Increasing shear to its north should prevent significant strengthening as it moves northward, however intensity forecasts are very hard to make. Irma continues to move south of their prior track which should allow it to move a little further west and the current track reflects it with a shift towards Fort Myers-Tampa. Prior to its NW-N turn it is expected to slow down. This may prolong our weather event.
Irma is a very large storm. The eye is 30 miles across currently. When it approaches Florida the wind field on the east side of the storm due to shear will be very large.
The forecast winds are as follows***very Important**
The eye wall will span 30 miles from the center (the Cat 4 winds)
Hurricane force winds 70 miles
Strong Tropical storm force winds 120 miles
Tropical Storm force winds 220 miles
The first outer bands are coming into South Florida now, then there should be a lull followed by winds steadily increasing starting early afternoon, mid-late morning in the Keys.
On the current track it is forecast to pass approximately 100 miles west of Miami. IF that occurs peak winds would be in the 60s in Miami with gusts into the 70s. With the size of the wind field they could last over 36 hours, From this afternoon until Monday am. For your given location everyone can calculate what winds you can expect. Pay attention to the coordinates of the storm. You can find the coordinates of your location by going to http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-80.32930450451518&lat=25.615100138543553#.WbPL-P1K2Uk
Go to the topographic map and pan in and out to find you general location then click on it. A green box will appear and the coordinates of your location will be under the diagram. Each degree of longitude and latitude in our area is approximately 70 miles (about 69). If the track brings it 1.1 degrees from you it will be 77 miles away etc.
Winds should start out of the SE, then S, then SW, then W then NW. The strongest will be the SE, S and SW. At home keep all interior doors closed. Stay away from windows even if they are shuttered. Carry a towel with you to protect yourself from debris or glass in the event of a breach. Don't open exterior doors or doors to your garage during the storm. Wear pants. If your in an area of Hurricane force winds find an interior room, generally the smaller the better. Remove things from walls or shelves in that room in the event of a breach. If a breach occurs lay on the floor. Cover yourself with what ever is available. Stay safe. On the current track Miami Dade, except for extreme western portions should see primarily a tree storm. There will be lots of trees and branches down. Watch out for power lines. Power is likely to go out. With the storm passing to the west of us expect lots of rain. 10-20" are currently forecast. Watch out for flooding.
Elsewhere Jose is expected to stall in a few days so we won't be able to fully write it off yet, see below, we'll have to re-evaluate him later.
I'll write later but it is appearing more likely that Miami will avoid the worse of the storm. The Middle Keys and the West Coast of Florida will see much more.
My best to all, Matt.