Good morning.
TD # 14 formed this morning along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. It is moving NNW (340 degrees) @ 3 knots and is expected to become Tropical Storm Michael later today. It is currently in an area of 20-30 knots of shear and development should be slow until it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico where shear will lessen. (See Wind Shear Analysis below.) The NHC is currently forecasting landfall Wednesday afternoon between coastal Mississippi and the Big Bend area of Florida centered around the Florida Panhandle as a 75 mph Cat 1 Hurricane. Due to shear a strong Tropical Storm may be more likely but it is too early to say. The real key as to location of landfall and intensity will be timing. The slower it goes the further east will be its track and the potentially stronger it could become.
If you look at the first Water Vapor Loop below you will see several things. Moving left to right, first a frontal system across the west-Central US (extreme western portion of image) with an upper level low over the Northern Gulf of Mexico, TD #14 just east of the Yucatan Peninsula, an upper level low North of Hispaniola, TS Leslie and then an upper level low in the far eastern Atlantic near the NW coast of Africa which corresponds to the "Yellow X" in the first diagram. Of these features it is the frontal system moving slowly eastward that will determine where Michael will make landfall. If the front were stationary it would go to Texas or Louisiana (see Surface Map), however it is moving. The slower the system moves the further east that front will be. Conversely if it should move faster, the further west the track, and the less intense as it would have less time to strengthen.
We'll just have to see, it should enter the southern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow afternoon. Where it is in relation to the current projections will be key.
As its shear is out of the west moisture will increase across all of Florida starting tomorrow. Expect increased rainfall the next few days.
I'll write again tomorrow, possibly in the afternoon when we should know more,
Matt.
TD # 14 formed this morning along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. It is moving NNW (340 degrees) @ 3 knots and is expected to become Tropical Storm Michael later today. It is currently in an area of 20-30 knots of shear and development should be slow until it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico where shear will lessen. (See Wind Shear Analysis below.) The NHC is currently forecasting landfall Wednesday afternoon between coastal Mississippi and the Big Bend area of Florida centered around the Florida Panhandle as a 75 mph Cat 1 Hurricane. Due to shear a strong Tropical Storm may be more likely but it is too early to say. The real key as to location of landfall and intensity will be timing. The slower it goes the further east will be its track and the potentially stronger it could become.
If you look at the first Water Vapor Loop below you will see several things. Moving left to right, first a frontal system across the west-Central US (extreme western portion of image) with an upper level low over the Northern Gulf of Mexico, TD #14 just east of the Yucatan Peninsula, an upper level low North of Hispaniola, TS Leslie and then an upper level low in the far eastern Atlantic near the NW coast of Africa which corresponds to the "Yellow X" in the first diagram. Of these features it is the frontal system moving slowly eastward that will determine where Michael will make landfall. If the front were stationary it would go to Texas or Louisiana (see Surface Map), however it is moving. The slower the system moves the further east that front will be. Conversely if it should move faster, the further west the track, and the less intense as it would have less time to strengthen.
We'll just have to see, it should enter the southern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow afternoon. Where it is in relation to the current projections will be key.
As its shear is out of the west moisture will increase across all of Florida starting tomorrow. Expect increased rainfall the next few days.
I'll write again tomorrow, possibly in the afternoon when we should know more,
Matt.