Good afternoon.
At 2 pm Dorian was located over Marsh Harbor on Great Abaco. Peak sustained winds were 185 mph with a barometric pressure of 910 mbs. Currently a very interesting phenomenon may be taking place. If you look at the water vapor loop below you will notice Dorian taking a distinct wobble to the north. This may be a simple wobble however it may be a move along the contour of the islands due to a land / storm friction interaction. The result of this, if it persist, Dorian may skirt the north east coast of the Abacos and re-emerge in the Atlantic on a course 20 to 30 miles north of its projected course. This would have a significant impact on lessening the risk to Grand Bahama as well as Florida. We’ll just have to see if this motion persist or as stated is a simple wobble.
This phenomenon has occurred several times in the past most recently was with hurricane Maria in 2017 as it took a decided westward wobble over Xiques Island which deflected it into the isle of Puerto Rico it was on a course to pass just to the east of the island prior. This also happened with hurricane Ivan in 2004 on its approach to Jamaica. It’s course mirrored the coast line of southern Jamaica missing landfall on the island. This can only occur when the angle of incidence is acute enough, steering forces weak enough and forward speed slow enough where this is allowed. Those conditions exist now.
We should know by later this evening. I have my fingers crossed.
Matt.
PS. Magnify the image of Dorian in the loop to see.
At 2 pm Dorian was located over Marsh Harbor on Great Abaco. Peak sustained winds were 185 mph with a barometric pressure of 910 mbs. Currently a very interesting phenomenon may be taking place. If you look at the water vapor loop below you will notice Dorian taking a distinct wobble to the north. This may be a simple wobble however it may be a move along the contour of the islands due to a land / storm friction interaction. The result of this, if it persist, Dorian may skirt the north east coast of the Abacos and re-emerge in the Atlantic on a course 20 to 30 miles north of its projected course. This would have a significant impact on lessening the risk to Grand Bahama as well as Florida. We’ll just have to see if this motion persist or as stated is a simple wobble.
This phenomenon has occurred several times in the past most recently was with hurricane Maria in 2017 as it took a decided westward wobble over Xiques Island which deflected it into the isle of Puerto Rico it was on a course to pass just to the east of the island prior. This also happened with hurricane Ivan in 2004 on its approach to Jamaica. It’s course mirrored the coast line of southern Jamaica missing landfall on the island. This can only occur when the angle of incidence is acute enough, steering forces weak enough and forward speed slow enough where this is allowed. Those conditions exist now.
We should know by later this evening. I have my fingers crossed.
Matt.
PS. Magnify the image of Dorian in the loop to see.