Good evening.
I'm writing about a system in the Southern Caribbean Sea which some of the models bring toward South Florida. See Data below. I've been receiving calls and texts through out the day. I would first like to say, " It is way too early for ANYONE to make an accurate prediction about this system." If you look at the water vapor loop below you will notice several features. First is the area in question moving westward just north of Venezuela. Next high pressure spinning clockwise over the Caribbean. Next Fiona moving NNE. Next a cold front just starting to move off the US East Coast.
If you look at the area in question you will notice that there is no spin. Until it actually forms no forecast will be accurate, that said it is currently headed toward Central America and the Yucatan. The main variables will be when it actually forms, the later, the further west it should go, and the location of high pressure over the Southern US. If you look at the surface map you can see it currently over Texas. Yesterday it was over Louisiana, however as Fiona moves to the NE it should move back to the east. The timing will be key and if you look at the computer models you will notice the wide spread in them. This is reflective of the high uncertainty in this forecast at this time.
Also notice the extremely high heat content in the northwestern Caribbean. There is a lot of fuel out there and something is going to tap into it. Possibly this system. My suspicion is that the high pressure over the US will shift eastward leading to a more westward track. Its lack of organization should favor this. We're just going to have to wait and see as things develop. The current model consensus is unlikely to be its actual track.
Until next time,
Matt.
I'm writing about a system in the Southern Caribbean Sea which some of the models bring toward South Florida. See Data below. I've been receiving calls and texts through out the day. I would first like to say, " It is way too early for ANYONE to make an accurate prediction about this system." If you look at the water vapor loop below you will notice several features. First is the area in question moving westward just north of Venezuela. Next high pressure spinning clockwise over the Caribbean. Next Fiona moving NNE. Next a cold front just starting to move off the US East Coast.
If you look at the area in question you will notice that there is no spin. Until it actually forms no forecast will be accurate, that said it is currently headed toward Central America and the Yucatan. The main variables will be when it actually forms, the later, the further west it should go, and the location of high pressure over the Southern US. If you look at the surface map you can see it currently over Texas. Yesterday it was over Louisiana, however as Fiona moves to the NE it should move back to the east. The timing will be key and if you look at the computer models you will notice the wide spread in them. This is reflective of the high uncertainty in this forecast at this time.
Also notice the extremely high heat content in the northwestern Caribbean. There is a lot of fuel out there and something is going to tap into it. Possibly this system. My suspicion is that the high pressure over the US will shift eastward leading to a more westward track. Its lack of organization should favor this. We're just going to have to wait and see as things develop. The current model consensus is unlikely to be its actual track.
Until next time,
Matt.