Good morning.
Since Monday the NHC's track on Rafael has changed. It moved faster than anticipated and the high pressure over the SE US coast has elongated and the NHC is now expecting it to move further west and south. If you look at the models, bottom graphic, you can see that the models are really all over the place. This is a low probability forecast. Someone anywhere from Southern Mexico to Alabama is likely to get a tropical storm next week. Its really too early to say where. The good news is that it should remove much of the remaining heat in the Gulf and due to dry air, wind shear and cooler waters should weaken. The longer it takes to make landfall likely the better as it will have more time to weaken.
Elsewhere a tropical disturbance just north of the NE Caribbean will need to be watched. The NHC is currently giving it a 30% chance of tropical development over the next week. Wind shear and dry air ahead of it should slow development. I'll be watching. Currently a track through the Florida Straits would appear most likely. Hopefully it won't develop or if it does, after it is past South Florida.
Until next time.
Matt.
Since Monday the NHC's track on Rafael has changed. It moved faster than anticipated and the high pressure over the SE US coast has elongated and the NHC is now expecting it to move further west and south. If you look at the models, bottom graphic, you can see that the models are really all over the place. This is a low probability forecast. Someone anywhere from Southern Mexico to Alabama is likely to get a tropical storm next week. Its really too early to say where. The good news is that it should remove much of the remaining heat in the Gulf and due to dry air, wind shear and cooler waters should weaken. The longer it takes to make landfall likely the better as it will have more time to weaken.
Elsewhere a tropical disturbance just north of the NE Caribbean will need to be watched. The NHC is currently giving it a 30% chance of tropical development over the next week. Wind shear and dry air ahead of it should slow development. I'll be watching. Currently a track through the Florida Straits would appear most likely. Hopefully it won't develop or if it does, after it is past South Florida.
Until next time.
Matt.
