Good morning,
Cassie here. My dad isn't available to write an update this morning, so I'll do my best to give you a run-down of the forecast conditions for Dorian.
Dorian is currently located north of Puerto Rico at 20.5 N and 66.6 W, and continues to stay on the northeastern edge of the NHC forecast so far. The NHC has made a few updates to their track overnight, most notably slowing down the storm and slightly widening the cone.
Ultimately, it's still too soon to predict precisely where the storm will make landfall. There is relatively high confidence in the storm's track for the next 48 hours, and then much more uncertainty. The ultimate location of landfall will depend on what happens to the pressure ridge currently over northern Florida, and it's still too soon to tell how it will behave. If the ridge weakens, the storm would take a more northerly track, and if the ridge strengthens, the storm could go further south. If you look at the models, you'll see a wide spread and divergence depending on what they assume about this ridge.
As for intensity, Dorian weakened slightly overnight and will be passing through some small pockets of shear over the next couple of days but also over warm waters, and is projected to strengthen. You can see the wind shear in the third image (where you can also see the ridge I mention above).
My dad will post additional insights and clarifications later this afternoon.
Take care,
Cassie
Cassie here. My dad isn't available to write an update this morning, so I'll do my best to give you a run-down of the forecast conditions for Dorian.
Dorian is currently located north of Puerto Rico at 20.5 N and 66.6 W, and continues to stay on the northeastern edge of the NHC forecast so far. The NHC has made a few updates to their track overnight, most notably slowing down the storm and slightly widening the cone.
Ultimately, it's still too soon to predict precisely where the storm will make landfall. There is relatively high confidence in the storm's track for the next 48 hours, and then much more uncertainty. The ultimate location of landfall will depend on what happens to the pressure ridge currently over northern Florida, and it's still too soon to tell how it will behave. If the ridge weakens, the storm would take a more northerly track, and if the ridge strengthens, the storm could go further south. If you look at the models, you'll see a wide spread and divergence depending on what they assume about this ridge.
As for intensity, Dorian weakened slightly overnight and will be passing through some small pockets of shear over the next couple of days but also over warm waters, and is projected to strengthen. You can see the wind shear in the third image (where you can also see the ridge I mention above).
My dad will post additional insights and clarifications later this afternoon.
Take care,
Cassie