Good evening.
I am writing about an area of disturbed weather over the central Bahamas which the national hurricane center has designated potential tropical cyclone number nine. It’s still lacks a closed circulation however the NHC is giving it a 70% chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours and an 80% chance within the next five days. If you look at the water vapor loop below you’ll notice that the upper level low which a few days ago was over the north east Bahamas has now looped over Georgia and has subsequently moved south west and now is situated over the Gulf of Mexico and is slowly moving to the west. If it had remained over the Bahamas it would have to deflected the system through the Florida Straits however being in the Gulf of Mexico now it will tend to deflect the system further north. Notice on the surface map bottom diagram high pressure will be tending to steer the system to the east, what impact that upper level low has before it moves out of the area will be the main factor determining how far north the system gets. The NHC Is currently forecasting it to become a tropical storm in the Vero Beach area. There is significant uncertainty in the forecast and will have to keep an eye on it. Due to significance shear it is unlikely to become a strong system. But things can change. Note there is wide discrepancy in the computer models at this time with a few taking it across Florida into the Northeast Gulf of Mexico several making land fall on East Central Florida and an equal number of taking it out to sea missing the state altogether. Until it forms there is high speculation as to just where it will go.
I’ll keep a close eye on it.
Until next time . Matt.
I am writing about an area of disturbed weather over the central Bahamas which the national hurricane center has designated potential tropical cyclone number nine. It’s still lacks a closed circulation however the NHC is giving it a 70% chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours and an 80% chance within the next five days. If you look at the water vapor loop below you’ll notice that the upper level low which a few days ago was over the north east Bahamas has now looped over Georgia and has subsequently moved south west and now is situated over the Gulf of Mexico and is slowly moving to the west. If it had remained over the Bahamas it would have to deflected the system through the Florida Straits however being in the Gulf of Mexico now it will tend to deflect the system further north. Notice on the surface map bottom diagram high pressure will be tending to steer the system to the east, what impact that upper level low has before it moves out of the area will be the main factor determining how far north the system gets. The NHC Is currently forecasting it to become a tropical storm in the Vero Beach area. There is significant uncertainty in the forecast and will have to keep an eye on it. Due to significance shear it is unlikely to become a strong system. But things can change. Note there is wide discrepancy in the computer models at this time with a few taking it across Florida into the Northeast Gulf of Mexico several making land fall on East Central Florida and an equal number of taking it out to sea missing the state altogether. Until it forms there is high speculation as to just where it will go.
I’ll keep a close eye on it.
Until next time . Matt.