Good evening.
At 5 pm Hurricane Irma was located at 20.9 N & 71.1 W and was moving WNW @ 16 mph. In looking at the Satellite Loop below Irma appears to be moving a little faster and further north than was anticipated yesterday. The NHC however expects it to shift to a little more westerly course tomorrow which could bring it further west than expected yesterday. The net result of this is that the NHC track has now shifted slightly west and currently targets Miami. The fast motion if it persists may allow Irma to move further west before the anticipated northern move occurs on Saturday. The European Model is currently projecting landfall around Naples with a track up the state. In reality not much has changed with Irma. There is considerable spread in the models, see below and there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where the NW-N turn will take her. To the east of Southeast Florida, over SE Florida or to the west coast of Florida. As we've seen they have been fluctuating over all of these possibilities over the past few day. SE Florida however remains at the center of these choices and remains the target of the NHC track. It does not however mean that the center will pass over Miami.
In looking at the Surface Map below all of those options appear possible. To me it still appears to be headed toward Andros Island. My concern is that it may continue straight to Miami or just off shore before turning N. Unfortunately we will probably not know until after the turn starts on Saturday.
Elsewhere Jose is now a Cat 3 and still remains a potential threat to Bermuda. (See below.)
Starting tomorrow I will begin writing posts throughout the day. As things clarify I will tell you just what to anticipate as far as winds, timing and which wind directions will be strongest so if needed we can be on the opposite sides in our houses.
Until tomorrow, Matt.
PS. I have not given up hope, there are still several scenarios which spare SE Florida from the brunt of Irma.
At 5 pm Hurricane Irma was located at 20.9 N & 71.1 W and was moving WNW @ 16 mph. In looking at the Satellite Loop below Irma appears to be moving a little faster and further north than was anticipated yesterday. The NHC however expects it to shift to a little more westerly course tomorrow which could bring it further west than expected yesterday. The net result of this is that the NHC track has now shifted slightly west and currently targets Miami. The fast motion if it persists may allow Irma to move further west before the anticipated northern move occurs on Saturday. The European Model is currently projecting landfall around Naples with a track up the state. In reality not much has changed with Irma. There is considerable spread in the models, see below and there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where the NW-N turn will take her. To the east of Southeast Florida, over SE Florida or to the west coast of Florida. As we've seen they have been fluctuating over all of these possibilities over the past few day. SE Florida however remains at the center of these choices and remains the target of the NHC track. It does not however mean that the center will pass over Miami.
In looking at the Surface Map below all of those options appear possible. To me it still appears to be headed toward Andros Island. My concern is that it may continue straight to Miami or just off shore before turning N. Unfortunately we will probably not know until after the turn starts on Saturday.
Elsewhere Jose is now a Cat 3 and still remains a potential threat to Bermuda. (See below.)
Starting tomorrow I will begin writing posts throughout the day. As things clarify I will tell you just what to anticipate as far as winds, timing and which wind directions will be strongest so if needed we can be on the opposite sides in our houses.
Until tomorrow, Matt.
PS. I have not given up hope, there are still several scenarios which spare SE Florida from the brunt of Irma.