Good morning.
At 1 am Sub-Tropical Storm Nicole was located at 27.3 N and 71.2 W. Nicole remains embedded in a broad upper level low. (ULL). ULLs are the nemesis of tropical systems as they rotate counter clockwise in the upper levels, the opposite of tropical system. This has hampered development so far, however the NHC is now forecasting the ULL to decay tomorrow and for Nicole to move away from it. This would allow Nicole to transition into a tropical system with more convection near its center as opposed to well removed from its center as we saw yesterday and currently. (Typical of non-tropical lows). If this occurs it would allow Nicole to strengthen.
If you look at the Water Vapor Loop below you will notice, for the first time with Nicole, a burst of convection near its center. Shear is forecast to decrease tomorrow and the NHC is currently forecasting Nicole to approach the East Coast of Central Florida as a 65-75 mph tropical storm or Cat 1 hurricane. If it does transition into a tropical system more wind and rain would be expected, if it doesn't most of its weather could remain offshore, however given this new development, tropical transition is more likely.
Until next time,
Matt.
At 1 am Sub-Tropical Storm Nicole was located at 27.3 N and 71.2 W. Nicole remains embedded in a broad upper level low. (ULL). ULLs are the nemesis of tropical systems as they rotate counter clockwise in the upper levels, the opposite of tropical system. This has hampered development so far, however the NHC is now forecasting the ULL to decay tomorrow and for Nicole to move away from it. This would allow Nicole to transition into a tropical system with more convection near its center as opposed to well removed from its center as we saw yesterday and currently. (Typical of non-tropical lows). If this occurs it would allow Nicole to strengthen.
If you look at the Water Vapor Loop below you will notice, for the first time with Nicole, a burst of convection near its center. Shear is forecast to decrease tomorrow and the NHC is currently forecasting Nicole to approach the East Coast of Central Florida as a 65-75 mph tropical storm or Cat 1 hurricane. If it does transition into a tropical system more wind and rain would be expected, if it doesn't most of its weather could remain offshore, however given this new development, tropical transition is more likely.
Until next time,
Matt.