Good afternoon.
At 11 am the NHC pronounced Potential Tropical Cyclone #9. It will likely become TS Isaias tomorrow. Winds are estimated at 40 mph however a defined center of circulation does not exist, thus the "Potential". An elongated area of low pressure was found instead. In light of this there is great amount of uncertainty in the forecast as the center could form distant to where they are projecting now. If you look at the surface map below you can see high pressure centered over South Florida. If you look at yesterdays surface map you will note that it was east of that, in other words, it is dynamic and unlikely to be in the same place in a few days. They tend to wobble back and forth, east and west in the Atlantic. Also note the dry air in front of the system.
The NHC's current track is through South Florida, however the average error in their forecasts at 5 days is 200 miles, and with this system as we do not know where the center will be when it forms, even greater. In other words it is unlikely to go on their present track. A track to our east is more likely, though I wouldn't want to make any prediction at this time with out knowing where it will be located if and when it forms.
I'll be watching it, Matt.
At 11 am the NHC pronounced Potential Tropical Cyclone #9. It will likely become TS Isaias tomorrow. Winds are estimated at 40 mph however a defined center of circulation does not exist, thus the "Potential". An elongated area of low pressure was found instead. In light of this there is great amount of uncertainty in the forecast as the center could form distant to where they are projecting now. If you look at the surface map below you can see high pressure centered over South Florida. If you look at yesterdays surface map you will note that it was east of that, in other words, it is dynamic and unlikely to be in the same place in a few days. They tend to wobble back and forth, east and west in the Atlantic. Also note the dry air in front of the system.
The NHC's current track is through South Florida, however the average error in their forecasts at 5 days is 200 miles, and with this system as we do not know where the center will be when it forms, even greater. In other words it is unlikely to go on their present track. A track to our east is more likely, though I wouldn't want to make any prediction at this time with out knowing where it will be located if and when it forms.
I'll be watching it, Matt.