Good morning.
The NHC has named the disturbance discussed yesterday Potential Tropical Cyclone #6. If you look at the water vapor loop below you can see that it is becoming better organized and will likely become TS Fred later today or tonight. There are a couple of features to note on the water vapor loop. First is the upper level low to its north, south of Bermuda. Second is a smaller upper level low over Andros Island which appears to be moving slowly westward. Also note SW shear over Cuba. Just note these for now, they may or may not have an impact on where Fred goes later. The Hurricane Hunters will be flying into the system later today to better evaluate it.
It is currently headed toward Hispaniola. After that a track over or along the northern coast of Cuba followed by a NW turn into the Gulf of Mexico toward the northern Gulf Coast is anticipated. It is still too early to make an accurate forecast, especially as a circulation center has not been identified. In addition if it crosses Hispaniola reformation of the eye could happen in an unexpected location which could alter its course.
If you look at the SAL Analysis below you can see that there is dry air ahead of the system which will be moving along with it which should slow development. You will also notice that compared to the SAL images in July, the dry air and dust has become eroded and is appearing moth eaten along its southern borders. This is due to the gradual moistening of the air by tropical systems as they move eastward off of Africa. This trend should continue making development of future systems more likely.
If you look at the IR image of Africa below you can see the pipeline of systems starting to line up over tropical Africa. The Cape Verde Season is starting. The systems that come off the African Coast between 10 and 12 degrees latitude are the ones that we in Florida need to watch the most.
I'll be watching.
Until next time,
Matt.
The NHC has named the disturbance discussed yesterday Potential Tropical Cyclone #6. If you look at the water vapor loop below you can see that it is becoming better organized and will likely become TS Fred later today or tonight. There are a couple of features to note on the water vapor loop. First is the upper level low to its north, south of Bermuda. Second is a smaller upper level low over Andros Island which appears to be moving slowly westward. Also note SW shear over Cuba. Just note these for now, they may or may not have an impact on where Fred goes later. The Hurricane Hunters will be flying into the system later today to better evaluate it.
It is currently headed toward Hispaniola. After that a track over or along the northern coast of Cuba followed by a NW turn into the Gulf of Mexico toward the northern Gulf Coast is anticipated. It is still too early to make an accurate forecast, especially as a circulation center has not been identified. In addition if it crosses Hispaniola reformation of the eye could happen in an unexpected location which could alter its course.
If you look at the SAL Analysis below you can see that there is dry air ahead of the system which will be moving along with it which should slow development. You will also notice that compared to the SAL images in July, the dry air and dust has become eroded and is appearing moth eaten along its southern borders. This is due to the gradual moistening of the air by tropical systems as they move eastward off of Africa. This trend should continue making development of future systems more likely.
If you look at the IR image of Africa below you can see the pipeline of systems starting to line up over tropical Africa. The Cape Verde Season is starting. The systems that come off the African Coast between 10 and 12 degrees latitude are the ones that we in Florida need to watch the most.
I'll be watching.
Until next time,
Matt.