Good morning.
Marco has dissipated and TS Laura is currently moving through the Yucatan Channel. The current NHC track brings it to the Louisiana/Texas border early Thursday morning as a 115 mph Cat 3 hurricane. If you look at the bottom diagram, water vapor loop, you can see a large upper level low just north of the Windward Passage moving west. This has been the main feature which has pushed Laura more south and west than had been forecast and I believe it will continue to influence its track. In light of this my current track is west of the NHC's bringing Laura ashore between Galveston Bay and Sabine Pass Texas. Everyone in this area should prepare for major hurricane conditions. There is one significant variable in play regarding intensity. If you look at the water vapor loop of the Gulf of Mexico you will see strong upper level SW winds along the Texas coast, this is shear and could potentially weaken Laura just prior to landfall. We'll have to see.
Elsewhere all is quiet.
Until next time,
Matt.
Marco has dissipated and TS Laura is currently moving through the Yucatan Channel. The current NHC track brings it to the Louisiana/Texas border early Thursday morning as a 115 mph Cat 3 hurricane. If you look at the bottom diagram, water vapor loop, you can see a large upper level low just north of the Windward Passage moving west. This has been the main feature which has pushed Laura more south and west than had been forecast and I believe it will continue to influence its track. In light of this my current track is west of the NHC's bringing Laura ashore between Galveston Bay and Sabine Pass Texas. Everyone in this area should prepare for major hurricane conditions. There is one significant variable in play regarding intensity. If you look at the water vapor loop of the Gulf of Mexico you will see strong upper level SW winds along the Texas coast, this is shear and could potentially weaken Laura just prior to landfall. We'll have to see.
Elsewhere all is quiet.
Until next time,
Matt.