Good morning.
Since yesterday things have changed quite a bit with Invest 99-L. In reviewing data this morning it appears that a tropical depression is currently forming. It remains under moderate shear in the NW Caribbean and development should be slow until it gets near Hispaniola. Yesterday there were 2 areas of spin, one to the north and one to the south, today due to greater shear to the north only the southern one remains and it has had significant convection over it overnight. The NHC forecast tract currently has Miami at the center of its cone. (see below). In looking at water vapor loops this am it appears to be heading more westerly than the NHC is projecting and I suspect we will soon see a shift in the models toward the south. An old frontal boundary across north - central Florida, will draw it toward the Florida Peninsula, high pressure to its north will tend to steer it to the west into the Gulf of Mexico.
My current track takes it through the Florida Straits near the Florida Keys. Note until it actually forms and a true center of circulation is determined and located precise tracks will be impossible to predict. I anticipate that it will cross the island of Hispaniola. The NHC has it passing to the north of it. Time will tell and the forecasts will fluctuate until a true course can be determined.
South Florida remains at risk with this system and I anticipate stores will be wild this weekend whether or not it affects us. I would recommend that every one go over you home hurricane plans and get whatever supplies which you may need today and tomorrow as you know things can get crazy here.
I will be writing daily about this system. Tomorrow probably in the afternoon. We should know more by then.
Matt.
Since yesterday things have changed quite a bit with Invest 99-L. In reviewing data this morning it appears that a tropical depression is currently forming. It remains under moderate shear in the NW Caribbean and development should be slow until it gets near Hispaniola. Yesterday there were 2 areas of spin, one to the north and one to the south, today due to greater shear to the north only the southern one remains and it has had significant convection over it overnight. The NHC forecast tract currently has Miami at the center of its cone. (see below). In looking at water vapor loops this am it appears to be heading more westerly than the NHC is projecting and I suspect we will soon see a shift in the models toward the south. An old frontal boundary across north - central Florida, will draw it toward the Florida Peninsula, high pressure to its north will tend to steer it to the west into the Gulf of Mexico.
My current track takes it through the Florida Straits near the Florida Keys. Note until it actually forms and a true center of circulation is determined and located precise tracks will be impossible to predict. I anticipate that it will cross the island of Hispaniola. The NHC has it passing to the north of it. Time will tell and the forecasts will fluctuate until a true course can be determined.
South Florida remains at risk with this system and I anticipate stores will be wild this weekend whether or not it affects us. I would recommend that every one go over you home hurricane plans and get whatever supplies which you may need today and tomorrow as you know things can get crazy here.
I will be writing daily about this system. Tomorrow probably in the afternoon. We should know more by then.
Matt.
