FYI an El Nino is probably coming. (Usually associated with decreased tropical activity due to a resultant increase in shear in the Caribbean and Southern Atlantic.)
Compare this bottom chart to the chart of 4/27/18 in Preseason Forecast. The timing will be the key. From looking at this it probably wouldn't start until October at the earliest, however shear is already high across the Caribbean and mid Atlantic, possibly related to rising Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures?
Compare this bottom chart to the chart of 4/27/18 in Preseason Forecast. The timing will be the key. From looking at this it probably wouldn't start until October at the earliest, however shear is already high across the Caribbean and mid Atlantic, possibly related to rising Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures?