Good morning.
At 5 am Hurricane Matthew was located at 21.1 N and 74.6 W, moving N @ 10 mph with a barometric pressure of 962 mbs and peak winds of 125 mph. In looking at the data on Matthew this morning there are a couple of things of note. First is that it had slowed down and moved very little overnight and is currently located just north of the eastern tip of Cuba. Due to land interactions it has weakened and is currently a Cat. 3 storm. This however will be temporary and re-intensification is forecast after it gets away from Cuba. Unfortunately due to its slower movement the NHC's track has shifted slightly further to the west. Second, the front over north Florida has moved eastward and most of Florida currently has dry air over it. (This may be good news)
At 24 hours the NHC's forecasts tend to be very accurate. On its present track Miami-Dade County could see tropical storm conditions. Broward is on the edge of Hurricane conditions and Palm Beach County north could see Hurricane conditions. On its present track it would traverse a large portion of the Gulf Stream which is not good and a very intense Hurricane is possible. The hurricane force wind field is not very large however a minor shift in the track could bring Hurricane conditions on shore, or well off shore. Because it could be a close call we should all from Miami north prepare for Hurricane conditions; though frankly I don't expect them south of Palm Beach County.
The current forecast advisory when it is in our area ,
{ "FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.5N 78.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 110NW. " }
only has storm force winds extending 110 mile to the NW of the center. On the current track it would pass 155 miles to the east of Miami. IF that happens Miami would only receive peak winds in the 30s.
My suspicion due to the movement of the front through most of Florida is that we will see a track slightly east of the present one. If you look at the models below, there are many that agree with me. However better safe than sorry.
I'll write further as things develop. On the present track strongest winds will be out of the NE and East, and after it passes, out of the north. Park cars close up on the west side of strong buildings. It should be at its closest approach tomorrow afternoon for Miami-Dade County. In Miami-Dade it should be primarily a coastal event. In general the further west and south you are the less weather you will receive.
Until later, Matt.
At 5 am Hurricane Matthew was located at 21.1 N and 74.6 W, moving N @ 10 mph with a barometric pressure of 962 mbs and peak winds of 125 mph. In looking at the data on Matthew this morning there are a couple of things of note. First is that it had slowed down and moved very little overnight and is currently located just north of the eastern tip of Cuba. Due to land interactions it has weakened and is currently a Cat. 3 storm. This however will be temporary and re-intensification is forecast after it gets away from Cuba. Unfortunately due to its slower movement the NHC's track has shifted slightly further to the west. Second, the front over north Florida has moved eastward and most of Florida currently has dry air over it. (This may be good news)
At 24 hours the NHC's forecasts tend to be very accurate. On its present track Miami-Dade County could see tropical storm conditions. Broward is on the edge of Hurricane conditions and Palm Beach County north could see Hurricane conditions. On its present track it would traverse a large portion of the Gulf Stream which is not good and a very intense Hurricane is possible. The hurricane force wind field is not very large however a minor shift in the track could bring Hurricane conditions on shore, or well off shore. Because it could be a close call we should all from Miami north prepare for Hurricane conditions; though frankly I don't expect them south of Palm Beach County.
The current forecast advisory when it is in our area ,
{ "FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.5N 78.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 110NW. " }
only has storm force winds extending 110 mile to the NW of the center. On the current track it would pass 155 miles to the east of Miami. IF that happens Miami would only receive peak winds in the 30s.
My suspicion due to the movement of the front through most of Florida is that we will see a track slightly east of the present one. If you look at the models below, there are many that agree with me. However better safe than sorry.
I'll write further as things develop. On the present track strongest winds will be out of the NE and East, and after it passes, out of the north. Park cars close up on the west side of strong buildings. It should be at its closest approach tomorrow afternoon for Miami-Dade County. In Miami-Dade it should be primarily a coastal event. In general the further west and south you are the less weather you will receive.
Until later, Matt.
Hurricane Matthew Wind History as of 5 am 10-5-16
Models for Hurricane Matthew 5:36 am 10-5-16