Good morning.
I am writing about an area of disturbed weather just east of the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC is currently giving it a 60% chance for tropical development over the next 5 days. It is currently undergoing significant shear and development if any should be slow to occur as it slowly drifts northward. Due to the shear even if it should develop it is unlikely to become more than a tropical storm until it reaches the extreme northern Gulf of Mexico where shear will lessen. (See bottom diagram, Wind Shear Analysis, everything in Red is Unfavorable for development). Currently the northern Gulf coast appears to be at greatest risk, (see middle diagram, Surface Map, for upper level steering forces). Due to high SW shear, if it passes to our west, as forecast, we should see enhanced rainfall from it over the weekend as most of its associated weather will be on the east side of the system. I am not overly concerned at present though anticipate a wet Memorial Day weekend for South Florida.
I will update you as things develop, or not.
Matt.
I am writing about an area of disturbed weather just east of the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC is currently giving it a 60% chance for tropical development over the next 5 days. It is currently undergoing significant shear and development if any should be slow to occur as it slowly drifts northward. Due to the shear even if it should develop it is unlikely to become more than a tropical storm until it reaches the extreme northern Gulf of Mexico where shear will lessen. (See bottom diagram, Wind Shear Analysis, everything in Red is Unfavorable for development). Currently the northern Gulf coast appears to be at greatest risk, (see middle diagram, Surface Map, for upper level steering forces). Due to high SW shear, if it passes to our west, as forecast, we should see enhanced rainfall from it over the weekend as most of its associated weather will be on the east side of the system. I am not overly concerned at present though anticipate a wet Memorial Day weekend for South Florida.
I will update you as things develop, or not.
Matt.