Greetings All !
2012 was an unusual year for weather for us in South Florida. For my over 23+ year history of daily weather/rainfall recordings and observations we had the wettest year that I have recorded with 84.55 " of rainfaill at my house with 70.37 inches falling in the 6 months of April through September. Many places in the Redlands had over 100" with one total of about 120" recorded. In contrast we also had some of the driest months with no measurable rainfall in January (the first month in over 23 years with none), the driest May I've recorded with 0.78" (contrast that with this year's 14.95") along with 4 months with < 1.00 inch of rain (January, May, November and December). My 23 year running average rainfall at my house is 68.14". The 2011 total was 63.31".
The Tropical activity in our vicinity included TS Debbie with 45 mph winds off the Gulf coast which made landfall in the Panhandle/Big Bend area leaving us with about 4 and 1/2 " of rain 6/21-26. TS Issac passed near the Dry Tortugas 8/24-26 giving us 20-30 mph winds and dumping 6.83" of rain at my house. Lastly was Hurricane Sandy a massive slow moving system which devastated the New Jersey coast with an expansive storm surge; though not a lot of wind.
Once again the National Weather Service is forecasting an above average season for tropical activity. See below:
NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season
Era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes continuesMay 23, 2013
2012 was an unusual year for weather for us in South Florida. For my over 23+ year history of daily weather/rainfall recordings and observations we had the wettest year that I have recorded with 84.55 " of rainfaill at my house with 70.37 inches falling in the 6 months of April through September. Many places in the Redlands had over 100" with one total of about 120" recorded. In contrast we also had some of the driest months with no measurable rainfall in January (the first month in over 23 years with none), the driest May I've recorded with 0.78" (contrast that with this year's 14.95") along with 4 months with < 1.00 inch of rain (January, May, November and December). My 23 year running average rainfall at my house is 68.14". The 2011 total was 63.31".
The Tropical activity in our vicinity included TS Debbie with 45 mph winds off the Gulf coast which made landfall in the Panhandle/Big Bend area leaving us with about 4 and 1/2 " of rain 6/21-26. TS Issac passed near the Dry Tortugas 8/24-26 giving us 20-30 mph winds and dumping 6.83" of rain at my house. Lastly was Hurricane Sandy a massive slow moving system which devastated the New Jersey coast with an expansive storm surge; though not a lot of wind.
Once again the National Weather Service is forecasting an above average season for tropical activity. See below:
NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season
Era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes continuesMay 23, 2013
Hurricane Sandy as seen from NOAA's GOES-13 satellite on October 28, 2012.
Download here (Credit:NOAA/NASA)
In its 2013 Atlantic hurricane season outlook issued 5/23/13, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting an active or extremely active season this year.
For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook says there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These ranges are well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
Despite the forecast it is still not likely that we will get a storm this year. On average we have a 14% chance of getting a hurricane any given year. Even if there are 11 hurricanes our odds would only increase to about 25%. Keep in mind that major storm occurs about 1 in 50 years and Cat 5s < 1/100 years. This does not mean that we should not prepare because the reality is that statistics are meaningless once a storm is out there. What counts is the particular environmental conditions that exist at the time it is in our vicinity and that is something we we cannot predict at this time. I am planning on pruning the trees in my yard this summer sometime before mid August.
Have a great summer and know I'll be keeping an eye out to what's going on out there.
Download here (Credit:NOAA/NASA)
In its 2013 Atlantic hurricane season outlook issued 5/23/13, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting an active or extremely active season this year.
For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook says there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These ranges are well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
Despite the forecast it is still not likely that we will get a storm this year. On average we have a 14% chance of getting a hurricane any given year. Even if there are 11 hurricanes our odds would only increase to about 25%. Keep in mind that major storm occurs about 1 in 50 years and Cat 5s < 1/100 years. This does not mean that we should not prepare because the reality is that statistics are meaningless once a storm is out there. What counts is the particular environmental conditions that exist at the time it is in our vicinity and that is something we we cannot predict at this time. I am planning on pruning the trees in my yard this summer sometime before mid August.
Have a great summer and know I'll be keeping an eye out to what's going on out there.