Perspective
With the start of the 2005 Hurricane Season it is important to keep things in perspective. On average South Florida experiences a hurricane about every 7 years, however all hurricanes are not created equal. On average we get a major hurricane (Category 3 or >) about every 50 years. Every year our chances of having a storm are about 14%, i.e. we have an 86% chance this year of NOT seeing hurricane conditions. In 1998 & 1999 we had 3 Cat 1 hurricanes, Mitch, Irene and Harvey though hardly anyone remembers them, that’s because they all approached from the west and Cat. 1 storms are not that bad. The one which we all remember was Andrew which was a Cat.5. The last Cat 5 to hit South Florida was the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, which devastated the Middle Keys, these occur < 1/100 years. There have only been 3 Cat. 5s this century to hit the entire US. The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Camille 1969 and Andrew 1992.
In retrospect 2004 was a very unusual year for weather. What spared us in Miami and what plagued the rest of the state was an extremely unusual northern displacement of the Bermuda High which steered storms, instead of through the Florida Straits, into the center of the state. It also lead us to have a well below average year for rainfall, 53.94” at my house, compared to my last 15 year average of 69.34”.
I usually will only track and forecast storms which present potential threats to South Florida. Last year I tracked 4 storms.
Hurricane Charlie which hit Captiva/Sanibel and Punta Gorda on 8/13 as a Cat.4 with 145mph winds by reconnisance plane, highest wind recorded on the ground was 127mph (Cat.3), in Punta Gorda. In Miami we received only 1 minor squall. Charlie was a very compact storm.
Hurricane Frances, 9/3-5, which made landfall just north of West Palm Beach as a Cat.2 with 100 mph winds. A huge storm with an over 400 mile wide storm force or greater wind shield which just prior to landfall produced tropical storm force winds simultaneously from Key West to Jacksonville (the entire East Coast)! It had a 70 mile wide eye spanning Boca to Vero Beach! Miami experienced 40-50 mph winds, Boca Cat.1 conditions.
Hurricane Ivan which made landfall on 9/16 near the Alabama - Florida state line as a Cat 3 storm, 130mph winds, bringing it’s strongest winds and surge from the state line to Pensicola. Nothing here.
Hurricane Jeanne which made landfall as a Cat.2 storm,110mph winds, 9/25-26 , just north of Ft. Pierce, bringing peak winds of 36mph to Miami.
Statistically we’re not due, but remember Chance Has No Memory.
Have a great year and remember, despite the local media, very few storms actually hit us. In addition they usually need to pass within 25 miles of you (usually less) to be affected by the eye wall, the true heart of the hurricane.
Best wishes, Matt.
With the start of the 2005 Hurricane Season it is important to keep things in perspective. On average South Florida experiences a hurricane about every 7 years, however all hurricanes are not created equal. On average we get a major hurricane (Category 3 or >) about every 50 years. Every year our chances of having a storm are about 14%, i.e. we have an 86% chance this year of NOT seeing hurricane conditions. In 1998 & 1999 we had 3 Cat 1 hurricanes, Mitch, Irene and Harvey though hardly anyone remembers them, that’s because they all approached from the west and Cat. 1 storms are not that bad. The one which we all remember was Andrew which was a Cat.5. The last Cat 5 to hit South Florida was the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, which devastated the Middle Keys, these occur < 1/100 years. There have only been 3 Cat. 5s this century to hit the entire US. The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Camille 1969 and Andrew 1992.
In retrospect 2004 was a very unusual year for weather. What spared us in Miami and what plagued the rest of the state was an extremely unusual northern displacement of the Bermuda High which steered storms, instead of through the Florida Straits, into the center of the state. It also lead us to have a well below average year for rainfall, 53.94” at my house, compared to my last 15 year average of 69.34”.
I usually will only track and forecast storms which present potential threats to South Florida. Last year I tracked 4 storms.
Hurricane Charlie which hit Captiva/Sanibel and Punta Gorda on 8/13 as a Cat.4 with 145mph winds by reconnisance plane, highest wind recorded on the ground was 127mph (Cat.3), in Punta Gorda. In Miami we received only 1 minor squall. Charlie was a very compact storm.
Hurricane Frances, 9/3-5, which made landfall just north of West Palm Beach as a Cat.2 with 100 mph winds. A huge storm with an over 400 mile wide storm force or greater wind shield which just prior to landfall produced tropical storm force winds simultaneously from Key West to Jacksonville (the entire East Coast)! It had a 70 mile wide eye spanning Boca to Vero Beach! Miami experienced 40-50 mph winds, Boca Cat.1 conditions.
Hurricane Ivan which made landfall on 9/16 near the Alabama - Florida state line as a Cat 3 storm, 130mph winds, bringing it’s strongest winds and surge from the state line to Pensicola. Nothing here.
Hurricane Jeanne which made landfall as a Cat.2 storm,110mph winds, 9/25-26 , just north of Ft. Pierce, bringing peak winds of 36mph to Miami.
Statistically we’re not due, but remember Chance Has No Memory.
Have a great year and remember, despite the local media, very few storms actually hit us. In addition they usually need to pass within 25 miles of you (usually less) to be affected by the eye wall, the true heart of the hurricane.
Best wishes, Matt.